International gold prices continued to be pressured during Asian trading hours on Tuesday, with spot gold (XAU/USD) falling to around $4,000 per ounce , maintaining a weak consolidation after a series of declines. Despite persistently high geopolitical risks in the Middle East, rising market expectations of the US maintaining a high-interest-rate policy for an extended period have somewhat dampened safe-haven buying of gold. US President Trump recently announced the restoration of maritime blockade measures against Iranian vessels and demanded a 20% compensatory fee for all other commercial goods transported through the Strait of Hormuz. Furthermore, Trump stated that the US will continue military operations against Iran and emphasized that high-intensity strikes will continue in the coming days. As tensions between the US and Iran escalate further, global energy transport risks continue to rise. Market participants generally believe that if the US reinstates restrictions on Iranian ports and vessels, Iran may further intensify its disruption of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. The Strait of Hormuz handles approximately 20% of global seaborne crude oil transport ; continued disruption could further increase international energy prices, thereby pushing up global inflation. For the gold market, geopolitical risks typically enhance safe-haven demand, but the current market is more concerned about the potential for rising energy prices to reignite inflation and force the Federal Reserve to maintain restrictive monetary policy for an extended period. Since gold itself does not generate interest income, when the market expects interest rates to remain high for a prolonged period, the opportunity cost of holding gold increases, weakening the willingness to allocate funds to gold. Therefore, gold prices have not fully benefited from the increased safe-haven sentiment. On the other hand, investors are awaiting the release of the US June Consumer Price Index (CPI) data later in the evening, which will be a key factor influencing the short-term trend of gold. The market expects the overall US June CPI month-on-month rate to be around -0.1% , while the core CPI month-on-month rate is expected to increase by 0.3% . If the inflation data is lower than market expectations, it may further weaken the dollar and strengthen market expectations for future monetary policy adjustments, thus providing temporary support for gold. Conversely, if the inflation data is strong, it may further solidify expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain its high-interest-rate policy, putting continued downward pressure on gold. In addition, the market will also focus on Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh's congressional testimony that day. Investors hope to glean the latest assessments on the future interest rate path, inflation situation, and economic outlook from his speech. If the speech continues to release cautious signals, the dollar and US Treasury yields may remain high, putting pressure on gold; if the wording is more moderate than market expectations, it may alleviate the policy pressure on gold. From a technical perspective, spot gold is still in a correction phase on the daily chart, and the overall trend has weakened after the price broke below the $4,000 mark. The MACD indicator maintains its death cross structure, and the green bars continue to expand, indicating that bearish momentum still dominates. The RSI indicator has fallen back to the neutral-to-weak zone, reflecting a slight weakening of buying power in the market. If gold prices continue to be under pressure, the first support level to watch is around $3975 , with further support at the $3940 area. If it can regain a foothold above $4000 , it may test the resistance levels around $4025 and $4050 , but the market may remain cautious ahead of important data releases. Looking at the 4-hour chart, gold is still trading within a downward channel in the short term, with the price center continuing to shift downwards. The MACD indicator maintains its death cross, but the rate of increase in the green bars has slowed, indicating that while the short-term decline has not ended, the bearish momentum has weakened slightly compared to before. The RSI is trading around 40, suggesting that market sentiment remains cautious. If US CPI data is lower than expected, gold is expected to rebound technically with the help of a weaker dollar and challenge the $4,025 resistance area; if inflation data is higher than market expectations, gold prices may further test the $3,975 or even $3,940 support area, and short-term volatility is expected to increase significantly. Editor's Summary: The current gold market is influenced by both geopolitical risks and monetary policy expectations. While escalating tensions in the Middle East have increased safe-haven demand, the market is more focused on the potential for rising energy prices to reignite inflation and prompt the Federal Reserve to maintain a high-interest-rate stance, putting continued pressure on gold's short-term performance. The US June CPI data and Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh's speech will be crucial catalysts in determining market direction. If inflationary pressures ease significantly, gold is expected to see a phase of rebound; however, if inflation remains stubborn, the US dollar and US Treasury yields may continue to be strong, and gold still faces the risk of further correction. Investors should focus on the continued impact of inflation data, the US dollar's performance, and changes in the Middle East situation on market risk appetite in the short term.