Live Updates > Live Update Details
2026-07-14 16:46:13
[Japanese Rubber Prices Surge to Monthly High; Geopolitical Premiums and Reduced Production in Production Areas Provide Support for Bulls] ⑴ On Tuesday, Japanese rubber futures broke through key resistance levels, with the December contract on the Osaka Exchange closing up 1.57% at 427.6 yen/kg. Buying interest was primarily driven by soaring international oil prices, which reached a four-week high due to escalating tensions between the US and Iran in the Strait of Hormuz. ⑵ Upstream raw material supplies also showed signs of tightness. Malaysian natural rubber production in May fell sharply by 16.7% year-on-year to 20,198 tons, while inventories declined by 6.2% month-on-month to 122,658 tons. The Thai Meteorological Department forecasts heavy rainfall and flash floods in major producing areas from July 13th to 15th, potentially temporarily halting rubber tapping operations. (3) The synthetic rubber chain followed the price increase more significantly. The September butadiene rubber contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange closed higher for the eighth consecutive day, with a single-day increase of 3.96% to RMB 13,390/ton. The near-month contract on Singapore's SICOM rose 1.3% to 217.3 US cents/kg, reflecting the strengthening transmission effect of crude oil costs. (4) In terms of market sentiment, concerns about global trade frictions triggered by Trump's tariff remarks have eased somewhat, and funds are refocusing on the real constraints on the supply side. Although February to May is the recovery period after the traditional low production season, extreme weather and geopolitical premiums are changing short-term supply and demand balance expectations. (5) It is necessary to monitor the actual extent of damage during the Thai rubber tapping window and the sustainability of crude oil risk premiums. If oil prices maintain a relatively strong and volatile trend, the upward trend of Shanghai rubber and Japanese rubber may continue, but the risk of amplified volatility at high levels should not be ignored.
