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2026-07-14 18:12:11
[Palm Oil Rebounds to 4573 Ringgit, Geopolitical Premium and Climate Risks Support Demand] ⑴ The September palm oil contract on the Malaysian Derivatives Exchange closed up 40 ringgit at 4573 ringgit per tonne on Tuesday. Buying was primarily driven by a confluence of bullish factors, with escalating US-Iran tensions pushing up overnight prices of competing vegetable oils, providing room for palm oil price correction. ⑵ Kenanga Futures noted in a report that market concerns about a potential super El Niño are growing, with extreme weather potentially constraining long-term production in Southeast Asia's main producing regions. This, coupled with the current significant price discount of palm oil relative to soybean oil, provides marginal support for export demand. ⑶ From a cross-commodity price comparison perspective, a continued widening of the soybean oil-palm oil price spread will prompt price-sensitive buyers to increase their palm oil purchases. Meanwhile, crude oil price fluctuations caused by Middle East geopolitical conflicts are indirectly transmitted to the vegetable oil pricing system through the biodiesel blending profit chain. (4) The focus going forward will be on the distribution of rainfall in Malaysian production areas and the direction of the USDA's July supply and demand report on global vegetable oil inventories. If the El Niño strength signal becomes clearer, the far-end contracts may receive stronger weather risk premium support.
