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[Caixin Futures: Steel Prices Fluctuate at Low Levels Amidst Raw Material Supply Disruptions and Weak Demand] ⑴ Steel: Steel exports remained resilient, and pessimistic expectations for the real estate market slightly improved, providing some boost to market sentiment. Both long and short positions in the top 20 rebar futures contracts (October contract) significantly reduced, with long positions seeing a larger reduction. Both long and short positions in the hot-rolled coil futures contracts (October contract) also decreased, with short positions showing a more pronounced reduction, indicating that funds were primarily exiting the market by reducing positions. Technically, the rebar futures contract (October contract) rebounded after testing support around 3050 yuan/ton, with resistance expected around 3116 yuan/ton (corresponding to the off-peak electricity cost line for electric arc furnaces in East China). Valuation-wise, steel mill profits continue to be under pressure, and the market is trading below the off-peak electricity cost line, resulting in relatively low overall valuations. Frequent supply disruptions on the raw material side have raised expectations of cost support, but the weak demand for steel remains unchanged, limiting the upside potential. (2) Iron Ore: BHP's labor negotiations failed; FMG faced restrictions on deliveries of some products, coupled with a seasonal decline in shipments after the June fiscal year's sales push, providing some support to the market in the short term. The September contract saw a rebound after a reduction in open interest; the key level to watch is whether it can effectively break through the 40-day moving average resistance, while the support level has moved up to around 750 yuan/ton. (3) Coking Coal: The pace of production resumption in Shanxi coal mines is slow, Inner Mongolia launched a 100-day special campaign to crack down on illegal mining activities, and the temporary closure of border crossings during the Mongolian Naadam Festival has resulted in numerous short-term supply disruptions and limited room for incremental growth. Pig iron production has declined from its high level, and with rising expectations of coking coal price reductions, downstream procurement is becoming more cautious, and coal prices may remain weak and volatile in the short term. The top 20 open positions in the September contract saw an increase in long positions and a decrease in short positions, with a generally positive change in open interest. The renewed US-Iran conflict has driven a sharp rise in crude oil prices, and the increase in energy premiums has provided some sentiment support to the market, but the overall market is in a game of supply contraction and weak demand, with both upward and downward potential constrained. (4) Coking Coal: Coking coal prices continued to weaken, leading to a slight recovery in coking plant profits, with output expected to remain stable with a slight increase. Pig iron production has been confirmed to have peaked, with further declines anticipated, and demand-driven momentum gradually weakening. The futures main contract is trading at a significant discount to the spot price, indicating a relatively low valuation. The September contract maintained a narrow range of fluctuation, with support at 1850 yuan/ton remaining a key level to watch, while resistance is expected at the 1900 yuan/ton level. Steel mill losses continued to widen, significantly increasing the difficulty of implementing the tenth round of price increases, and expectations of price reductions intensified, leading to an overall downward shift in market valuations. However, the basis has already largely priced in the expected spot price reductions, limiting further downside potential for futures. (5) Manganese Silicon: The fundamentals remained weak and stable, with manganese ore port inventories continuing to accumulate. Demand remained weak, with plant operating rates remaining low and on-site inventories increasing, driving overall weakness. The September contract closed higher with reduced open interest, with support at the 20-day moving average and resistance at 5940 yuan/ton. Both long and short positions among the top 20 holders decreased, with long positions seeing a larger reduction.