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2026-07-14 21:40:11
[US-Iran Conflict Ignites Inflation, Interest Rates Remain High, Bond Market and Growth Stocks Face Headwinds] ⑴ An institutional analyst report points out that the ongoing US-Iran conflict is pushing up oil prices, exacerbating the risk of renewed inflation and extending the window for high interest rates. ⑵ This situation puts direct pressure on the bond market, while the real estate, utilities, and overvalued growth stock sectors will also face continued headwinds, as these assets are most sensitive to interest rate changes. ⑶ Analysts believe that unless there is a larger-scale substantial shock to oil supply, the market impact will mainly be limited to oil prices themselves, inflation expectations, and high-interest-rate-sensitive investment areas. ⑷ Money market pricing has already reflected the Bank of England's expectation of a cumulative interest rate hike of approximately 42 basis points by 2026, and tightening expectations are still brewing. ⑸ In terms of sentiment, investors are engaged in a dual game between energy shocks and policy paths, with risk aversion rising and funds gradually shifting from long-term assets to short-term or defensive sectors. (6) The focus will then shift to the pace of development of the situation in Iran and whether oil prices can remain stable at their current high levels. If the geopolitical premium continues, the global bond market will face a new round of repricing pressure.
