Silver prices remained weak and volatile as expectations for a Fed rate hike slowed.
2026-07-15 13:46:12
Spot silver (XAG/USD) edged lower in Asian trading on Wednesday, trading around $58.30 per ounce . Despite a slight correction in early Asian trading, silver remained in a low-level consolidation pattern as weaker-than-expected US inflation data cooled market bets on further interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve. 
Data released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics showed that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 3.5% year-on-year in June, lower than the market expectation of 3.8% and significantly lower than May's 4.2% ; month-on-month, it fell 0.4 %, ending the previous months' upward trend. This indicates that overall inflationary pressure in the U.S. has eased, and has strengthened market expectations that the Federal Reserve will slow the pace of tightening policy in the future. Meanwhile, the core CPI rose 2.6% year-on-year in June, lower than the market expectation of 2.8% and lower than May's 2.9% , indicating a further slowdown in core price increases. After the inflation data was released, the dollar index and U.S. Treasury yields both fell, reducing the opportunity cost of holding non-interest-bearing assets and providing support for precious metals, including silver. However, the Federal Reserve remains cautious about future policy. Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh reiterated at a congressional hearing that the Fed will continue to work towards restoring price stability, but did not signal any more aggressive policy measures. This means that although inflation has improved recently, the Fed still needs to observe more economic data to confirm whether inflation can continue to move towards its 2% target. Meanwhile, significant disagreement remains regarding the future path of interest rates. The CME Group's FedWatch tool shows that the market currently expects a roughly 50% probability of a further rate hike by the Federal Reserve in September . This expectation is primarily influenced by the recent rise in international oil prices. As tensions between the US and Iran continue to escalate, energy supply risks in the Middle East are rising again, leading to a sustained increase in international oil prices. Market concerns are that rising energy prices could further push up global inflation, prompting the Federal Reserve to maintain its high-interest-rate policy for an extended period. For silver, the market is currently influenced by two forces. On the one hand, cooling US inflation weakens the dollar, improving the investment environment for precious metals and providing support for silver. On the other hand, the inflationary risks brought about by rising oil prices may re-strengthen market expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain a restrictive policy, thus limiting the upside potential of silver. Therefore, short-term silver price movements will continue to fluctuate around US economic data, Federal Reserve policy expectations, and changes in the international energy market. From a technical perspective, spot silver maintains a weak and volatile pattern on the daily chart, with prices continuing to trade below major moving averages, and the overall medium-term trend has not changed significantly. If silver prices regain a foothold above $58.80 and break through the resistance near $59.20 , they could potentially test the $60.00 level. Initial support is seen at $58.00 , with further support around $57.20 . While daily momentum has slowed somewhat, it remains generally positive. The 4-hour chart shows silver maintaining a low-level consolidation, with short-term moving averages still in a bearish alignment, but short-term momentum has weakened slightly compared to the previous period, indicating the market has entered a consolidation phase. A break above $59.20 could trigger a short-term recovery; a break below $58.00 could lead to further retracements to the $57.20 or even $56.50 area. Overall, the short-term trend remains weak and volatile. 
Editor's Summary: US June inflation fell short of market expectations across the board, providing support for the precious metals market, with silver maintaining a low level of consolidation. However, the Federal Reserve reiterated the importance of restoring price stability, while the Middle East situation pushing up international oil prices has also led the market to refocus on the risk of a future inflation rebound. In the short term, US PPI, speeches by Federal Reserve officials, and changes in the energy market will continue to influence market judgments on monetary policy. If US inflation continues to decline and the dollar remains weak, silver is likely to continue its volatile trend; however, if rising energy prices continue to push up inflation expectations and the Federal Reserve extends the period of maintaining high interest rates, the upside potential for silver may be somewhat limited.
Data released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics showed that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 3.5% year-on-year in June, lower than the market expectation of 3.8% and significantly lower than May's 4.2% ; month-on-month, it fell 0.4 %, ending the previous months' upward trend. This indicates that overall inflationary pressure in the U.S. has eased, and has strengthened market expectations that the Federal Reserve will slow the pace of tightening policy in the future. Meanwhile, the core CPI rose 2.6% year-on-year in June, lower than the market expectation of 2.8% and lower than May's 2.9% , indicating a further slowdown in core price increases. After the inflation data was released, the dollar index and U.S. Treasury yields both fell, reducing the opportunity cost of holding non-interest-bearing assets and providing support for precious metals, including silver. However, the Federal Reserve remains cautious about future policy. Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh reiterated at a congressional hearing that the Fed will continue to work towards restoring price stability, but did not signal any more aggressive policy measures. This means that although inflation has improved recently, the Fed still needs to observe more economic data to confirm whether inflation can continue to move towards its 2% target. Meanwhile, significant disagreement remains regarding the future path of interest rates. The CME Group's FedWatch tool shows that the market currently expects a roughly 50% probability of a further rate hike by the Federal Reserve in September . This expectation is primarily influenced by the recent rise in international oil prices. As tensions between the US and Iran continue to escalate, energy supply risks in the Middle East are rising again, leading to a sustained increase in international oil prices. Market concerns are that rising energy prices could further push up global inflation, prompting the Federal Reserve to maintain its high-interest-rate policy for an extended period. For silver, the market is currently influenced by two forces. On the one hand, cooling US inflation weakens the dollar, improving the investment environment for precious metals and providing support for silver. On the other hand, the inflationary risks brought about by rising oil prices may re-strengthen market expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain a restrictive policy, thus limiting the upside potential of silver. Therefore, short-term silver price movements will continue to fluctuate around US economic data, Federal Reserve policy expectations, and changes in the international energy market. From a technical perspective, spot silver maintains a weak and volatile pattern on the daily chart, with prices continuing to trade below major moving averages, and the overall medium-term trend has not changed significantly. If silver prices regain a foothold above $58.80 and break through the resistance near $59.20 , they could potentially test the $60.00 level. Initial support is seen at $58.00 , with further support around $57.20 . While daily momentum has slowed somewhat, it remains generally positive. The 4-hour chart shows silver maintaining a low-level consolidation, with short-term moving averages still in a bearish alignment, but short-term momentum has weakened slightly compared to the previous period, indicating the market has entered a consolidation phase. A break above $59.20 could trigger a short-term recovery; a break below $58.00 could lead to further retracements to the $57.20 or even $56.50 area. Overall, the short-term trend remains weak and volatile. Editor's Summary: US June inflation fell short of market expectations across the board, providing support for the precious metals market, with silver maintaining a low level of consolidation. However, the Federal Reserve reiterated the importance of restoring price stability, while the Middle East situation pushing up international oil prices has also led the market to refocus on the risk of a future inflation rebound. In the short term, US PPI, speeches by Federal Reserve officials, and changes in the energy market will continue to influence market judgments on monetary policy. If US inflation continues to decline and the dollar remains weak, silver is likely to continue its volatile trend; however, if rising energy prices continue to push up inflation expectations and the Federal Reserve extends the period of maintaining high interest rates, the upside potential for silver may be somewhat limited.
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