Download App

[Short-term focus on inflation data and geopolitical risks; gold remains range-bound between $3950 and $4200] 1. Gold continued its decline this week, falling over 2%. The fragility of the US-Iran ceasefire agreement, stronger oil prices, and a stronger dollar exacerbated inflation concerns, driving the market to price in the Fed's "higher and longer" policy. The 10-year US Treasury yield rose to its highest level since April 2025, increasing the opportunity cost of holding non-interest-bearing gold and making gold prices vulnerable. 2. A weaker-than-expected US CPI report briefly boosted gold, easing expectations of interest rate hikes and lowering yields and the dollar, but the rebound quickly faded after Fed Chairman Warsh reiterated his commitment to restoring price stability. This indicates that policy decisions will not rely on a single inflation figure. The market is closely watching upcoming US PPI, retail sales, and labor market data for further guidance on interest rate expectations. 3. From a technical perspective, gold remains within the $3950-$4200 consolidation range. Immediate resistance is at $4100-$4120, followed by resistance at $4220. A decisive break above $4220 could open the way to $4320-$4350; failure to hold $4000 could trigger a correction to $3950, followed by $3800. 4. If US economic data continues to weaken, the Federal Reserve may shift to a more dovish stance, in which case gold prices could break through $4200 and test $4350. If the escalating US-Iran conflict pushes up oil prices, triggering "stagflation" pricing—that is, rising inflation expectations coupled with increased economic concerns—gold prices could break through the key resistance zone of $4320-$4350 due to safe-haven demand and inflation hedging demand. However, if the Federal Reserve is forced to raise interest rates earlier than expected due to oil price pressures, it could limit the upside potential of gold prices.