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2026-07-16 18:30:12
[French Soft Wheat Exports and Stockpiling Decline, Pressure on EU Grain Prices] ⑴ The French National Agency for Agriculture (CNA) released its first outlook for the 2026/27 crop year, projecting soft wheat exports to non-EU countries to reach 7 million tons, a 5% decrease from 2025/26, while shipments within the EU are expected to reach 7.4 million tons, a 6% year-on-year decrease. ⑵ While exports and stocks decline, the estimated ending stocks for soft wheat in 2026/27 are 3.65 million tons, an 8% increase from the previous year, while barley ending stocks jumped significantly by 38% to 1.91 million tons, indicating a significant accumulation of supply pressure. ⑶ The agency also revised its 2025/26 soft wheat export forecast to non-EU countries down to 7.4 million tons, a decrease of 150,000 tons from the June estimate, but slightly increased exports within the EU to 7.9 million tons, reflecting relatively strong demand in the region. ⑷ The estimated ending stocks for 2025/26 were lowered from 3.5 million tons to 3.38 million tons, mainly due to adjustments in the previous year's supply and demand structure. (5) Regarding corn, the severe heatwave has led to a decline in expected production, and the 2025/26 ending stocks estimate has been revised down from 2.5 million tons to 2.39 million tons, indicating that the risk of reduced corn production in France is gradually materializing. (6) Overall, the new season sees a simultaneous contraction in soft wheat exports and a rebound in stocks. The EU's internal market absorption capacity is limited, and French grain prices may face continued downward pressure. Meanwhile, the weather premium for corn still has room to further develop.
