Currently, the conflict between the United States and Iran has entered a vicious cycle of continuous escalation. The US military has launched airstrikes for five consecutive days, while Iran has retaliated with targeted strikes against Gulf states and targets within Jordan, rendering the previously reached ceasefire agreement completely ineffective. Although both countries have stated they will not close the door to diplomatic negotiations, their top officials have publicly adopted a hardline stance and refused to compromise. In fact, a prolonged standoff would be extremely costly for both the US and Iran, with multiple economic, military, and political pressures piling up, and the high cost of a full-scale war making it unbearable for either side in the long run. In June 2026, the US and Iran signed a memorandum of understanding, agreeing to extend the ceasefire agreement and initiate bilateral dialogue. This brief peace agreement has now been completely nullified. As the main mediator in the US-Iran conflict, Pakistan publicly called on both countries on July 16 to end the new round of violence and restart peace negotiations. Pakistani Foreign Ministry spokesman Tahir Andrabi stated at a press conference in Islamabad that Pakistan firmly believes that only through continuous communication, equal dialogue, and diplomatic mediation can lasting peace, stability, and development in the Middle East be achieved; there is no alternative. However, diplomatic appeals have not eased the confrontation between the two sides. Former US President Trump recently made several public statements claiming that Iran was eager to reach a ceasefire agreement with the US, yet questioned Iran's lack of sincerity in fulfilling its commitments and refused to compromise easily. In contrast, Iran's attitude is more hardline. Iran's chief negotiator, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, stated bluntly that Iran is engaged in a life-or-death struggle with the US and has no obligation to continue to abide by previous peace agreements. Behind this seemingly tit-for-tat hardline stance, both countries are actually mired in multiple predicaments and cannot sustain a prolonged, large-scale conflict. Iran: Economy Under Pressure, Military Defense System Significantly Damaged Long-term sanctions and ongoing warfare have dealt a double blow to Iran's overall strength. Decades of unilateral US sanctions, coupled with the recent US-Israel joint military strikes, have led to a sluggish Iranian economy, strained livelihoods, and significant damage to military infrastructure, resulting in a substantial decline in overall combat capability. Economically, Iran is one of the countries most severely sanctioned globally. The comprehensive US sanctions have precisely targeted Iran's economic lifeline, strictly controlling its oil exports, cutting off its global financial channels, and freezing a large amount of overseas assets, causing Iran's economy to continue to shrink. Data shows that Iran's per capita GDP has plummeted from $8,000 in 2012 to $5,000 in 2024; daily oil exports have also decreased from 2.2 million barrels to 1.5 million barrels in 2025, with its main energy export industry remaining weak. After the signing of the US-Iran memorandum of understanding in June, the situation briefly improved. At that time, the US lifted the maritime blockade, introduced a 60-day sanctions waiver policy, and promised to unfreeze Iranian overseas assets. Stimulated by this positive news, the continuously depreciating Iranian rial appreciated by 15% in a single day. However, this period of relative calm was short-lived. This week, the US reinstated sanctions against Iran, dealing another heavy blow to Iran's already fragile economy and severely impacting both its economy and market confidence. On the diplomatic front, Iran's regional situation continues to deteriorate. In March and April of this year, Iran repeatedly attacked targets within the Gulf states, already straining relations with its neighbors. This latest round of retaliatory attacks has further fractured its ties with its Gulf neighbors. Currently, the US has deployed military forces in at least 19 Middle Eastern locations, including Bahrain, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE. Iran's retaliatory actions have repeatedly affected the sovereign territories of other countries, causing civilian casualties. Driven by the conflict, Gulf states have begun to strengthen military cooperation, sharing intelligence data and coordinating early warning systems to form a joint defense system against regional conflicts, further shrinking Iran's regional diplomatic space. The US: Soaring Oil Prices, Election Pressure, and Depleted Arms Stockpiles The US, seemingly possessing military superiority, is also deeply mired in the war. Despite continuous precision strikes against Iran, the US has failed to force Iran to submit. Instead, it faces a triple crisis: domestic livelihoods, political elections, and arms reserves, with the cost of war continuing to rise. Fluctuations in energy prices are the most direct source of pressure on the US economy. The Strait of Hormuz carries one-fifth of the world's oil shipments and is a core channel for international energy trade. A new round of US airstrikes triggered market panic regarding the safety of shipping through the strait, causing international crude oil prices to surge by 12%. Iran subsequently blocked the Strait of Hormuz, completely disrupting the global energy supply landscape, and causing dramatic fluctuations in US domestic oil prices. Before the war, the average price of gasoline in the US was $2.98 per gallon; in May of this year, it peaked at $4.63. The rise in oil prices directly increased the cost of living across the US, significantly increasing the financial burden on the public. Public discontent has directly translated into political tensions, having a significant impact on the US midterm elections. The US midterm elections will be held this November, and the Republican Party faces the risk of losing its majority in Congress. A recent poll by Yugov shows that 57% of Americans believe the Trump administration's decision to go to war with Iran was a serious mistake, and the war has become an extremely unpopular policy. Multiple polls show that the Democratic Party's support has slightly surpassed that of the Republican Party, with the Iranian conflict becoming a major drag on the Republican Party's election prospects. The US Senate has previously advanced related bills requiring Trump to either obtain congressional authorization to wage war or withdraw troops to end the conflict, amidst a continued surge in anti-war sentiment domestically. The shortage of military reserves is a deep-seated strategic threat to the United States. Data from the Center for Strategic and International Studies shows that while the US military is not facing a critical arms crisis, its core weapons stockpiles have been significantly depleted. In the current war against Iraq, the US military has primarily used seven types of high-end, heavy, and expensive munitions, four of which have already had more than half of their pre-war stockpiles depleted. Even if Trump invokes the Defense Production Act to force military-industrial companies to expand production, it will still take months or even years to fill the existing arms gap. In addition to the enormous military spending, US military casualties continue to rise. Statistics from the Center for American Progress show that as of July 14, the current war against Iraq has resulted in the deaths of 14 US soldiers and injuries to 414 others. The dual losses of personnel and resources are continuously increasing the burden of the war on the United States. More importantly, the rapidly depleting Patriot interceptor missiles, Tomahawk cruise missiles, and other core equipment are strategic reserves for dealing with great power competition and future superpower conflicts; excessive depletion will severely undermine the United States' long-term strategic deterrent capability. Stalemate in the Game: Both Sides Under Pressure, Neither Willing to Make Concessions While both the US and Iran have their weaknesses and are ill-equipped to sustain a protracted war, their strategic stances are extremely firm, making a ceasefire consensus unlikely in the short term. Professor Alam Saleh of the Australian National University analyzed that while economic pressure and diplomatic difficulties constrain Iran, the Iranian leadership defines this round of conflict as a "battle for survival" and will not easily compromise or back down. Iran possesses extremely strong resilience; after 47 years of continuous sanctions, it has long since built a relatively independent domestic production system, adapted to the high-pressure economic environment, and has the ability to withstand sanctions in the long term. At the same time, to maintain national dignity and regional influence, Iran will never bow down to its military disadvantage. US media confirmed that Iran quickly restarted its drone production line during the ceasefire window in April, and analysts predict it can replenish its drone inventory within months. Therefore, Iran's core bottom line is very clear: only with absolute security guarantees will it consider signing a new agreement; economic difficulties will not force Iran to compromise. The US's concerns stem more from its global strategic layout than from the Middle East conflict itself. Brian Finyuka, a security expert at the International Crisis Group, points out that the rapid depletion of the US military's core armaments is not due to concerns about losses in the Middle East wars, but rather to fear of falling into a military shortage predicament in future great power competition. Excessive consumption of high-end weapons in response to the Iranian conflict will significantly weaken the US's global strategic tolerance. In the long run, the US is suffering serious damage to its international reputation. The fact that the US, despite its military might, has been unable to completely suppress Iran, a regional power in the Middle East, fully exposes the limitations of its military power, and its deterrent power as a global superpower continues to weaken. In summary, both the US and Iran are deeply mired in the cost of war, and a prolonged standoff will only result in mutual destruction. However, constrained by multiple factors such as core interests, strategic dignity, and global strategic positioning, neither country is willing to take the lead in showing weakness or making concessions. The core contradiction in this ceasefire negotiation is clear: both sides need a truce to stop losses, but neither is willing to sacrifice its own strategic interests; therefore, the stalemate in the Middle East conflict will continue in the short term.