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2026-07-17 11:08:12
[US and Iran gamble on "who can hold out longer": Iran's oil lifeline is cut off, and the stalemate may last for months] (1) Trump has reimposed an oil export blockade on Iran in an attempt to cut off its economic lifeline and force it to make concessions in the Strait of Hormuz; however, this will severely impact the lives of ordinary people in the short term and may lead the US and Iran into a more destructive long-term stalemate. (2) Historically, Iran has preferred to bear huge costs rather than yield to demands that threaten the survival of its regime. The pragmatic faction inside the country is worried that the deteriorating economy will shake the foundation of the regime, while the hardliners advocate actively controlling the Strait as a bargaining chip against the US, deepening the rift between the two sides. (3) If the blockade lasts for four to five months, oil revenue may drop to near zero. Although there is a buffer of about 100 million barrels in offshore storage, production will be forced to stop once the storage is full; exports were briefly restored during the previous temporary ceasefire, but the blockade has caused crude oil exports to plummet again. (4) The economy has already been ravaged by years of sanctions and war: inflation in June was 88.6% year-on-year, GDP is expected to shrink by 5.4%, ordinary families are relying on credit to buy basic food, prices are soaring (e.g., eggs rose by 40% in a single month), and unstable power supply is endangering the lives of patients. (5) The blockade cuts off major sources of foreign exchange, pushes up the prices of imported goods, and leads to layoffs in the manufacturing industry, with an estimated loss of 2 to 3 million jobs, forming a vicious cycle of economic recession and inflation, and the lack of a stable outlook is making the people overwhelmed.
