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2026-07-17 20:26:12
【Straits Strait Traffic Drops to Single Digits, Energy Artery Nearly "Severed"】 ⑴ Shipping data shows that only three merchant ships passed through the Strait of Hormuz yesterday, marking the lowest daily traffic volume since May. The vast majority of vessels chose to halt or turn back following recent Iranian attacks on merchant ships and the US reinstating its blockade of Iranian-related vessels. ⑵ The renewed conflict between the US and Iran has effectively paralyzed this most important global oil and gas shipping route once again. The precipitous drop in traffic volume directly increased the risk premium for energy transportation, causing international oil prices to rise accordingly. ⑶ From the perspective of shipowners, soaring insurance rates and the scarcity of escort resources have led to extremely conservative short-term transit decisions. Even a small number of transit vessels must bear extremely high security costs. This self-reinforcing avoidance behavior will further reduce the strait's usability. (4) Going forward, we need to closely monitor whether Iran expands the scope of its military response, whether the United States can provide effective escort and guarantees, and the long-term increasing effect of alternative routes such as bypassing the Cape of Good Hope on transport distance and costs. These factors will determine whether the tightness in the energy market supply will evolve from an expectation into a real shortage.
