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2026-07-17 21:00:12
[Russia's June Inflation Shows Significant Regional Divergence, with Uneven Price Movements in Food and Services] ⑴ In June, price increases accelerated in 80 Russian regions compared to May. However, the central bank attributed this to one-off factors, with fruit and vegetable prices rebounding after an unusually sharp decline in April and May, becoming the main driver of food price increases. ⑵ Non-food price increases were largely driven by gasoline and diesel. Due to decreased refinery output and temporary supply disruptions, excluding oil products, non-durable goods prices in nearly 40 regions actually declined month-on-month, reflecting uneven domestic demand. ⑶ Service price growth slowed in over half of the regions, with some even recording month-on-month declines, mainly due to a cooling of domestic tourism demand. However, overall service inflation remains high, with no signs of systemic easing. ⑷ From a policy perspective, the central bank emphasized maintaining a tight stance to push inflation across regions back to the target range. Going forward, attention should be paid to whether core inflation has endogenous downward momentum after seasonal factors subside, and the second round of transmission effects of fiscal spending on prices.
