On Tuesday (July 21), Brent crude oil futures corrected after hitting a monthly high of $91 overnight during Asian trading hours, currently trading around $88.60 per barrel. The main factor driving the price pullback was the international mediators' proposal for a 10-day ceasefire with Iran, aimed at easing the conflict and paving the way for the resumption of last month's interim agreement. However, just before the ceasefire proposal was announced, the US-Iran conflict had undergone a major escalation. Over the weekend, according to informed US officials, Iran launched a ballistic missile at Jordan's Mowafak Sarti airbase, hitting prefabricated housing for US troops and killing two American soldiers. Officials stated that the base was attacked by missiles three times within 24 hours, and the fatal blow was one of them. Debris from the first missile struck the base's gymnasium, triggering air raid sirens and allowing troops to run for cover; some were injured en route, but no one was killed. A few hours later, a second missile struck an empty hangar. The third attack struck directly at the container barracks where soldiers were sleeping—the alarm sounded for the third time, but not everyone managed to escape to cover. The fact that as many as three missiles breached the US air defense system highlights the serious challenges the US faces in protecting its approximately 50,000 troops stationed in the region—the Iranian military still possesses a significant number of ballistic missiles and drones. Media reports previously indicated that Iran has adapted to the US defense system, and its missiles, launched at extremely high speeds and capable of maneuvering on their dives towards the ground, increase the difficulty of interception.

US Response: Trump Threatens "Multiple Retaliations," US Military Launches New Round of Strikes

U.S. President Trump wrote on social media on Monday: “Iran will pay many times more for every American soldier it kills! This directive has been given to Secretary of Defense Peter Hegseth, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Daniel Kaine, and every commander in the military.” Shortly thereafter, the U.S. military announced a new round of strikes aimed at further weakening Iran’s ability to attack commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. Pentagon spokesman Sean Parnell posted on social media Monday: “While nearly 100 service members have been considered to have sustained some degree of injury since July 7, 2026, 96% have returned to duty. The vast majority of injuries are mild concussions.” Since the start of the war, 17 service members have been killed in hostilities or accidents, and one is missing. Secretary of Defense Peter Hegseth and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Dan Kaine are scheduled to testify before a Senate subcommittee on Tuesday regarding the costs of the war.

Iran's stance: Supreme Leader warns of "a painful lesson"

Iran's Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei warned in a statement that if the United States continues its attacks on Iran, it will pay a "deeply painful lesson." Iran also released satellite images on social media, claiming they showed damage to the base, including what appeared to be a dormitory area. This attack, which resulted in casualties, is one of a series of recent attacks by Iran against US military bases in Jordan. Previously, diplomatic negotiations aimed at ending the conflict and reopening the Strait of Hormuz stalled, prompting the Trump administration to push for an expanded strike against Iran, targeting bridges and other infrastructure.

Diplomatic signal: The US says it remains open to negotiations, but "it has to be serious."

When asked by reporters this weekend about the attacks on Jordan, Secretary of State Marco Rubio said, "One missile broke through the defenses. We shot down almost all of them. But one slipped through the net and hit where it shouldn't have. It's unfortunate and heartbreaking." Rubio hinted that the United States remains open to negotiations with Iran, but Iran must honor any commitments it makes. "We are always open to diplomatic channels. But this has to be serious," he said.

Market Impact: Geopolitical conflicts extend from the sea to land, and risk premiums continue to be injected into oil prices.

The killing of a U.S. soldier in an attack on a Jordanian base marks a significant escalation in the U.S.-Iran conflict—extending from maritime confrontations in the Strait of Hormuz to direct casualties at U.S. land bases. This incident signifies that geopolitical risks are evolving from concerns about shipping disruptions to larger-scale military conflict, further increasing uncertainty in the global energy market. Against this backdrop, war risk premiums in the Strait of Hormuz have surged to 8%-10%, a new high in this round of conflict, far exceeding the pre-conflict levels of 1%-3%. Frequent attacks on oil tankers, insurers suspending quotations, and shipowners hesitant to proceed—passage through the Strait of Hormuz is becoming increasingly difficult and expensive. Geopolitical premiums continue to be injected into oil prices through insurance, freight, and supply channels. (Brent crude oil futures daily chart, source: FX678) At 10:39 Beijing time on July 21, Brent crude oil futures were trading at $88.78 per barrel.