Gold and silver prices rose during the US trading session on Tuesday (July 21). Short covering pushed precious metal prices higher after last week's sell-off; meanwhile, US Treasury yields, the US dollar index, and crude oil prices remained firm. Spot gold traded around $4068.09 per ounce, up 1.52%; spot silver was quoted near $58.965, up 4.57% on the day. Gold traded between $3998.80 and $4085.10 in early trading, with prices returning above the $4000 mark and testing resistance near $4064 in the short-term technical framework. Silver traded between $56.00 and $59.37 in early trading, rebounding from last week's lows and re-entering the trading range of $58.53 to $59.44. Following the release of the latest round of key US economic data, market expectations for interest rates did not lean towards easing as suggested by the inflation data in early July. Weaker-than-expected Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) initially eased pressure on the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates again in the short term; however, stronger-than-expected retail sales data, a decline in initial jobless claims, a significant rebound in the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index, and improved consumer confidence from the University of Michigan made it difficult for traders to bet on a complete shift to an easing policy by the Fed. The market generally expects the Fed to keep interest rates unchanged at its July meeting, but a rate hike in September remains a possibility; the latest interest rate pricing shows a probability of about 64% for a September rate hike. The 10-year US Treasury yield hovered around 4.60%, while the US dollar index traded around 101.00. Gold was supported by short covering and geopolitical risks, but suppressed by the trading logic of "high interest rates lasting longer," limiting its upside potential. The situation in the Strait of Hormuz can be summarized as follows: the waterway remains open, but shipping is highly tense, and regional military standoff continues. The US and Iran continue to clash over control of the waterway; the US has stated it will not close the door to diplomatic negotiations, while Iran continues to strengthen its control over this vital shipping route. After mediators pushed for a new round of ceasefire negotiations, Brent crude oil prices fell below $90, and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil traded around $82. However, risks such as ship attacks, Houthi threats to Saudi shipping, and restrictions on passage through the Strait of Hormuz continue to threaten the energy supply chain, keeping the crude oil risk premium high. Geopolitical tensions have a two-way impact on gold: geopolitical risks boost safe-haven demand for gold; however, rising oil prices will push up inflation expectations, supporting US Treasury yields and thus limiting the upside potential for gold prices. Traders are closely watching speeches by Federal Reserve officials, changes in market expectations for a September rate hike, and any new disturbances in the Strait of Hormuz and Red Sea shipping. If gold prices continue to hold above $4064, the short-term technical outlook for gold will improve significantly; however, if prices fall below $4021, the key support area of $4000 will face renewed pressure. Major international market conditions: WTI crude oil on the New York Mercantile Exchange declined slightly, trading around $82.00 per barrel; Brent crude oil was around $88.30. The US dollar index held steady around 101.00; the benchmark 10-year US Treasury yield was around 4.60%. Technical Analysis (Spot Gold Daily Chart Source: FX678) Spot gold prices held above the $4000-$4021 support range, regaining the 50-period moving average ($4021.55) and the 100-period moving average ($4038.93), giving bulls a short-term technical advantage. The next upside target for bulls is to push gold prices above $4064.08; a successful break above this level would target $4100.37, with a further target of $4139.71. The short-term downside target for bears is to push gold prices below $4021.28; a break below this level would target $4000, followed by $3990.15. The first resistance level is $4064.08, followed by $4100.37; the first support level is $4021.28, followed by $4000. Spot silver prices rebounded and rose above the 50-period moving average of $57.68, approaching the downtrend line resistance at $58.00, indicating a slight improvement in the short-term technical outlook. The next upside target for silver bulls is to push prices above $59.15; a break above this level would target $62.75, with a further target of $64.86. The downside target for bears is to push prices below $54.92; a break below that would target $52.67, followed by $50.51. The first resistance level is $59.15, followed by $62.75; the first support level is $54.92, followed by $52.67.