Silver surged and broke through the downtrend line, signaling a bullish reversal?
2026-07-21 15:56:14
However, as signs of easing tensions between the US and Iran emerged, crude oil prices began to decline, providing some support for silver. Currently, WTI crude oil prices are down about 0.45%, trading around $81.90, after hitting a monthly high of $84.42 on Monday. The decline in oil prices reduced market concerns about runaway inflation, becoming a significant factor driving the short-term rebound in silver . If energy prices continue to cool, investors may lower their expectations for further interest rate hikes by global central banks, thereby improving the environment for the precious metals market. Recently, the market has been focused on whether there is further room for easing tensions between the US and Iran. According to reports, Iran has confirmed receiving a short-term ceasefire proposal from the mediators, leading the market to reassess the possibility of resuming negotiations. Improved risk sentiment has also reduced the pressure of funds flowing into safe-haven assets, giving silver more upward momentum. However, the market still needs to pay close attention to developments, as any renewed escalation of supply risks could drive a rebound in oil prices and change expectations in the precious metals market. Regarding Federal Reserve policy, the market generally expects the policy meeting next week to keep interest rates unchanged. Market interest rate tools indicate that investors believe the Federal Reserve will not adjust its policy in the short term, providing some support for silver. However, the Fed's future policy path still depends on inflation changes. If energy prices rise again and drive inflation expectations back up, the Fed may extend the period of maintaining high interest rates, limiting silver's upside potential. From a market performance perspective, silver's current rise is more of a technical correction than a complete confirmation of a trend reversal. Investors still need to pay attention to the dollar's performance, changes in US Treasury yields, and global inflation expectations. The daily chart for silver shows that XAG/USD has recently seen a stronger rebound, currently trading around $59, but the overall short-term structure remains cautious. The current price is still below the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) of $59.65, indicating that upward pressure remains. If silver can effectively break through the $59.65 resistance, it could alleviate recent downward pressure and further test the $60 and $61 areas. On the downside, the first support level to watch is the July 17 low of $54.77, which is currently a key defense area; a break below this level could reopen downward correction space. The daily chart shows that the bulls are attempting to correct the trend, but a breakout above key moving averages is still needed to confirm a reversal. Looking at the 4-hour chart, silver's short-term rebound momentum has clearly strengthened, with prices quickly rising to around $59. The MACD indicator shows that the bearish momentum has weakened, and the market is showing signs of correction; the RSI indicator (14) has risen to around 41.94, and although it has escaped the oversold zone, it remains in a weak range, indicating that the current rise is more of a corrective rebound. If the price breaks through $59.65, it may further challenge the $60 level in the short term; if the rebound is blocked, it may retest the support area of $56 to $54.77. Short-term trends still depend on changes in oil prices, expectations of Fed policy, and the development of geopolitical risks.
Editor's Summary: Spot silver has recently rebounded significantly in the short term, driven by falling oil prices and improved risk sentiment. Market expectations of easing tensions between the US and Iran have reduced energy supply risks and eased upward pressure on inflation and interest rates, providing upward momentum for silver. However, silver is currently in a technical correction phase, and resistance around $59.65 will determine whether the rebound can extend further. A break above this area could open up room for silver to move towards $60 or higher; failure to break through should raise concerns about short-term profit-taking. Future silver price movements will continue to revolve around three main factors: the direction of the US dollar, Federal Reserve interest rate expectations, and changes in the energy market. Improved short-term market sentiment is beneficial for silver, but macroeconomic policy uncertainties could still lead to significant volatility.
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