On Tuesday (July 28, Beijing time) in early Asian trading, spot gold was trading around $4,075 per ounce. Gold prices briefly touched above $4,115 per ounce on Monday, boosted by a temporary easing of tensions between the US and Iran that led to a sharp drop in oil prices to a one-week low. A slight weakening of the US dollar also enhanced the attractiveness of gold. US crude oil fell 9.46% on Monday, hitting its lowest level since mid-July. The US abruptly suspended its airstrikes against Iran over the weekend, with Trump stating that the two sides were having "good talks" and a deal was expected. Market hopes rose for a diplomatic easing of tensions and the resumption of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. US crude oil is currently trading around $81.87 per barrel.

Key Focus Today

stock market

U.S. stocks closed mixed on Monday. The S&P 500 edged up 0.02% to 7413.18, the Nasdaq fell 0.18% to 24932.08, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.51% to 52210.08. Investors remained cautious ahead of a busy earnings week, with AI giants such as Microsoft, Amazon, Meta, and Apple set to release their quarterly results. Previous earnings reports from Tesla and Google had already raised concerns about the return on AI investments. A sharp drop in oil prices was another focus of the day. Influenced by U.S. President Trump's statement that Washington was having "good talks" with Iran and that a peace agreement was possible, oil prices fell, putting pressure on energy stocks. Occidental Petroleum fell 4.1%, and Exxon Mobil fell 1.4%. However, gains in stocks such as Walmart, Microsoft, and Johnson & Johnson supported the S&P 500, with consumer staples and information technology sectors leading the gains. Meanwhile, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index continued its recent decline, falling another 2.2%, and has now fallen 21% from its June record high. The market is also awaiting the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision on Wednesday. Traders expect a 62% probability of keeping rates unchanged and a 38% probability of a 25 basis point rate hike. The June PCE data to be released on Friday will influence subsequent interest rate expectations. Currently, the S&P 500's price-to-earnings ratio is around 20, which is in line with its historical average, but second-quarter earnings are expected to jump 39% year-on-year, mainly due to AI-related contributions. Bank of America analysts pointed out that market concerns about a possible rate hike are driving sector rotation.

Gold Market

Gold prices rose on Monday, with spot gold up 0.57% to $4,076.45 an ounce, mainly boosted by a temporary easing of tensions between the US and Iran that caused oil prices to plummet to a one-week low. This followed US President Trump's statement that the US was having "good talks" with Iran and the two sides suspending military strikes over the weekend, easing concerns about disruptions to shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. Falling oil prices eased inflationary pressures and lowered market expectations for "higher and longer" interest rates, while a slight weakening of the US dollar index also enhanced gold's appeal to overseas buyers. The head of commodity strategy at TD Securities noted that falling oil prices are pushing interest rate expectations lower, while investors are awaiting the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision on Wednesday (traders expect a 62% probability of no change) and the US June PCE inflation data to be released on Thursday for further policy signals. In other precious metals, spot silver rose 0.34% to $58.37, platinum rose 2% to $1620.34, and palladium rose 3.5% to $1286.25.

oil market

Oil prices plunged on Monday, with Brent crude falling 10.76% to settle at $87.79 a barrel and WTI crude falling 9.46% to settle at $81.91, both hitting their lowest levels since mid-July. This was mainly due to the U.S. abruptly suspending its airstrikes against Iran over the weekend. President Trump stated that the two sides were having "good talks" and that an agreement was possible, fueling market hopes for easing tensions through diplomatic means and restoring shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude oil had previously broken through $100 last week as the conflict spread to the Red Sea and hindered Saudi oil exports via the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. Although Saudi air defenses intercepted drones launched from Iraq, and the Houthi rebels in Yemen claimed responsibility for attacks on supply facilities from Saudi eastern oil fields to the port of Yanbu, the US ambassador to the UN confirmed a pause in airstrikes to buy time for diplomacy. Meanwhile, Trump warned of resuming military strikes if negotiations failed. Analysts pointed out that this pause does not guarantee a rapid restoration of supply. PVM analysts stated that the market lacked bullish news and was looking for positive catalysts. StoneX strategists emphasized that the ceasefire could still cause significant volatility and that actual supply remained constrained. Kpler data showed fewer than 10 ships per day transiting the Strait of Hormuz. SEB analysts stated that shipping volume had fallen to about 15% of pre-war levels, and the political standstill would not immediately increase actual oil exports.

Foreign exchange market

The dollar weakened against the euro and yen on Monday. The euro was essentially flat against the dollar at $1.1366, while the dollar fell 0.07% against the yen to 163.32 yen. This was mainly due to the US suspension of airstrikes against Iran, which pushed down oil prices. Tehran stated that if the US continued its suspension, Iran would also cease its attacks, boosting hopes for diplomatic de-escalation and improving risk appetite. However, the dollar recovered from its daily lows as US Treasury yields fell less than in other markets, providing support for the dollar. Markets are focused on several central bank policy meetings this week. The Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision on Wednesday. CME FedWatch shows a 33% probability of a 25 basis point rate hike (lower than 37% at the end of last week but higher than the previous week). Goldman Sachs' chief economist said the FOMC statement may acknowledge the upside risks to inflation from geopolitical conflicts. Investors are also watching US Q2 GDP and core PCE data. The Bank of England and the Bank of Japan are expected to keep interest rates unchanged on Thursday and Friday, respectively. However, the Bank of Japan may hint at room for a rate hike to curb the yen's depreciation. Analysts believe the window for Ministry of Finance intervention may have passed, and a clear signal of a dollar peak and a decline in oil prices is needed. The pound gave up its gains against the dollar, falling 0.23% to $1.3288, as the new UK government faces inflationary pressures from rising oil prices.

International News

The probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike this week is 36.3%, and the probability of a rate hike in September is 81.5%. According to CME's "FedWatch": the probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged in July is 63.7%, and the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate hike is 36.3%. The probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged by September is 18.5%, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate hike is 55.7%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point rate hike is 25.8%. The probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged by December is 7.9%, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate hike is 32.3%, and the probability of at least a 50 basis point rate hike is 59.8%. Trump: The US should have the lowest interest rates in the world On Monday, US President Trump, when discussing the Federal Reserve, said that Fed Chairman Warsh is excellent, but he has to deal with the committee's problems. He believes Warsh will do the right thing and knows what Warsh wants. Regarding interest rates, Trump said that interest rates should be lower and the US should have the lowest interest rates in the world. He also mentioned that costs are rapidly declining. Trump: I'm prepared for "powerful military action" if negotiations with Iran fail. On Monday, US President Trump, in an interview with Axios, stated that he had decided to suspend US strikes against Iran to give negotiations another chance, but emphasized that he would order a resumption of large-scale military action if diplomatic negotiations failed. The negotiations are primarily led by Iran and Oman, with Qatar, Pakistan, Egypt, and Trump's special envoys Steve Vitkov and Jared Kushner also deeply involved. "We are engaged in deep negotiations with Iran. If the negotiations fail, we will resume high-intensity military action," Trump said. When asked how much time he was willing to allow for diplomatic mediation, Trump responded, "Not much time. Either we reach an agreement quickly, or we terminate the negotiations directly." Trump revealed that he decided to suspend the strikes last Friday because several mediators pleaded with him to allow a buffer period for the negotiations. "All the countries involved in Iran affairs advised me: Don't use force." Trump stated that he believes Iran is willing to reach an agreement. When asked why he agreed to the mediator's request, Trump stated, "There's no loss and no risk in doing so." He also mentioned that after he announced a halt to military strikes, international oil prices fell and stock markets rose in tandem. Iran's Foreign Ministry: Strait of Hormuz Remains Closed On July 27th local time, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Bagaei stated at a press conference that the Strait of Hormuz remains closed. The spokesman also stated that talks between Iran and Oman regarding the management of the Strait of Hormuz have made positive progress. CME Group Launches Individual Stock Futures, Allowing Investors to Trade SpaceX, Micron, and Other Stocks 23 Hours a Day. On July 27th, the Chicago Mercantile Exchange Group launched cash-settled individual stock futures based on 55 U.S. stocks, as well as micro-contracts based on 22 stocks, marking the exchange's entry into a market designed to allow investors to engage in leveraged long and short trading around the clock. These contracts are traded on the CME's Globex platform from Sunday evening to Friday afternoon, with a one-hour maintenance break each day, allowing investors to react to earnings reports and other market-moving events outside of regular U.S. stock market trading hours. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu departed for Washington, D.C. on July 27 for a face-to-face meeting with U.S. President Donald Trump on July 28. This will be their eighth meeting since Trump's return to the White House, and their first in-person meeting since the U.S.-Israel joint airstrikes against Iran in late February. Netanyahu's visit comes at a time when Trump has halted the series of attacks on Iran and is considering expanding the scale of the strikes. Before his departure, Netanyahu stated that he and Trump "will discuss all issues, with Iran being the top priority." In recent weeks, Netanyahu has acknowledged some differences with Trump, as the two countries' interests in the Middle East appear to be diverging. Some analysts believe that if this meeting demonstrates the close relationship between the two leaders, it will help Netanyahu address his domestic election campaign—he faces the Israeli parliamentary elections on October 27, and his current poll numbers are low. (CCTV International News)

Domestic News

China's domestically produced surgical robot exports surged 330%, with the "New Three Pillars" gaining global popularity. At a recent policy briefing on "Ensuring and Improving People's Livelihoods through High-Quality Development," Yin Hejun, Secretary of the Party Group and Minister of the Ministry of Science and Technology, stated that artificial intelligence, robotics, and innovative drugs, known as the "New Three Pillars," are developing rapidly and are expected to form new pillar industries. Data from a certain platform shows that from July 13th to 19th, the weekly usage of China's large-scale model reached 36.11 trillion words, a 30.93% increase compared to the previous week, marking eight consecutive weeks of growth and maintaining its position as the world's leading industry for twelve consecutive weeks. In the first half of this year, China's robot exports reached 6.29 billion yuan, with products sold to 141 countries and regions worldwide. Surgical robot exports saw a 3.3-fold increase. In the first half of the year, China's innovative drug licensing transactions reached approximately 110 billion US dollars, with Chinese pharmaceutical companies occupying eight of the top ten spots in the global pharmaceutical transaction list. (CCTV News) China's wind power is rushing to be installed globally . With 4.4GW of orders secured in half a year and over 10 billion yuan in orders on hand, the market spans three continents. This isn't photovoltaics, nor is it lithium batteries; it's the "overseas achievement" of wind power. In Sheyang, Jiangsu, a batch of large-scale intelligent offshore wind turbines are being assembled and commissioned. Their destination is the Vinh Long 128 MW offshore wind power project in Vietnam—once completed, it will be a leading offshore wind power project cluster in Vietnam and Southeast Asia in terms of single-unit capacity. Deng Heng, General Manager of Offshore Products at Envision Energy, explained that this is the first time Vietnam has adopted large-diameter, high-capacity intelligent offshore wind turbines. From January to June 2026, Envision Energy added over 4.4 GW of overseas orders, covering multiple regions globally, including North Africa, Southern Europe, and Southeast Asia. In Caofeidian, Tangshan, the deep-sea offshore engineering base built by Dajin Heavy Industry successfully went into operation this year. This is the world's first ultra-large-scale fully indoor construction factory for offshore engineering products, capable of mass-producing deep-sea fixed and floating wind power foundations to match 15MW-25MW high-power units, focusing on solving pain points in deep-sea wind power development such as high costs of foundation equipment, slow delivery, and difficulties in supply chain coordination. Jiang Haitao, Vice President of Dajin Heavy Industry, revealed that as of now, Dajin Heavy Industry's overseas order backlog exceeds 10 billion yuan, and its products are exported to more than 30 countries and regions. Interviews with several companies revealed that overseas orders have increased significantly this year, and the pace of overseas expansion continues to accelerate, with overseas markets becoming a crucial engine for industry growth. (CCTV Finance)