On Friday (July 31, Beijing time) in early Asian trading, spot gold traded around $4,110 per ounce, mainly boosted by a weaker dollar and moderate US inflation data; US crude oil traded around $84 per barrel, with traders assessing Saudi Arabia's plan to form a multinational maritime defense alliance including Turkey, Pakistan, Egypt, and 14 other countries to strengthen defenses in the Red Sea and surrounding waters. They believe that once geopolitical issues are resolved, a large supply could be released, suppressing a sharp rise in oil prices.

Key Focus Today

stock market

U.S. stocks closed sharply higher on Thursday, with the S&P 500 rising 1.66% to 7437.63, the Nasdaq surging 2.78% to 25122.18, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average gaining 1.19% to 52208.06. The gains were primarily driven by Microsoft's biggest one-day jump in 18 years, with the stock soaring over 15% and adding $450 billion to its market capitalization – the largest single-day increase in Wall Street history. This was attributed to better-than-expected quarterly revenue and cloud business growth, lower-than-expected capital expenditures, and a projected continued cash flow generation into fiscal year 2027, easing market concerns about the ROI of massive AI investments. In contrast, Meta Platforms suffered a sharp decline after its second-quarter free cash flow plummeted 91%, highlighting the financial pressure of high AI spending. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index surged 8.2%, with Micron rising 18%, Sandisk soaring 26%, and AMD gaining 13%. Amazon rose 3.9%, while Apple fell 1.4%, with both companies releasing earnings reports after the market closed. On the economic data front, US second-quarter GDP growth was revised down to 1.5%, inflation slowed in June, and traders lowered the probability of a Fed rate hike in September to 59%, but the 30-year Treasury yield surged to a 19-year high. Among individual stocks, Qualcomm fell 2.6%, Fair Isaac plummeted 17%, and Starbucks rose 1.6%, with overall market trading active.

Gold Market

Gold prices rose on Thursday, with spot gold closing up nearly 1% at $4,103.42 an ounce, mainly boosted by a weaker dollar and modest U.S. inflation data. The dollar index fell 0.82% as the yen strengthened and markets became wary of potential intervention by Japanese authorities in the currency market, making dollar-denominated gold more attractive to overseas buyers. Meanwhile, data from the U.S. Commerce Department showed that the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index fell 0.1% month-on-month in June, in line with expectations. However, the global head of commodities strategy at TD Securities pointed out that the slowdown in inflation may only be temporary, as escalating hostilities in the Middle East pushed up oil prices, and the market generally believes that central banks will eventually respond, pushing gold prices above the $4,150-$4,200 resistance range. The previous day, the Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged. While Chairman Warsh pledged to resolutely suppress inflation, he did not clarify the policy path, confusing traders. The CME FedWatch tool showed that the probability of a September rate hike fell from about 77% before the meeting to 61%, and since gold does not yield interest, a high-interest-rate environment usually weakens its appeal. In addition, the number of initial jobless claims in the United States last week increased less than expected, indicating a stable labor market. Other precious metals also rose in tandem, with spot silver up 2.38% to $58.96, platinum up 2.5% to $1652.32, and palladium jumping 4.4% to $1301.39.

oil market

Oil prices fluctuated and closed lower on Thursday. Brent crude fell 1.04% to settle at $87.19 a barrel, while WTI crude fell 0.76% to $83.96. Although prices had earlier touched intraday highs of $93.31 and $85.94 respectively due to the escalation of the US-Iran military conflict, traders assessed Saudi Arabia's plan to lead a multinational maritime defense alliance, including Turkey, Pakistan, Egypt, and 14 other countries, to strengthen the defense of the Red Sea and surrounding waters. They believed that once the geopolitical issues were resolved, a large supply could be released, thus curbing a significant rise in oil prices. Meanwhile, Iran and Oman continued talks on the management of the Strait of Hormuz. Iran rejected Oman's proposal for joint regional management, but the market remains hopeful for the strait's reopening. The US military claimed to have struck dozens of Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps targets inside Iran but denied that any US military aircraft had been destroyed. Furthermore, an attack on an oil tanker at the Caspian Pipeline Union terminal during loading operations caused the tanker, which was scheduled to load cargo, to leave the Black Sea, further exacerbating supply disruptions. However, overall oil prices still closed lower due to expectations of a potential return to normal supply levels.

Foreign exchange market

The dollar index fell 0.82% on Thursday to close at 99.98, while the dollar fell 2.4% against the yen, hitting a low of 157.96 yen, its lowest level since May 14. Analysts widely suspect this was an official intervention by Japanese authorities to support the long-weak yen. Although not officially confirmed, market participants noted that the sudden and large-scale movement of the dollar against the yen was consistent with intervention characteristics. The foreign exchange division of Japan's Ministry of Finance did not immediately comment. Meanwhile, the dollar weakened across the board as the U.S. June Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index rose 3.7% year-on-year, in line with expectations but slowing from the previous 4.1%. The initial estimate for second-quarter GDP growth was only 1.5% annualized, far below the expected 2.1%, with a widening trade deficit dragging down economic growth. This prompted traders to increase their bets on the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged in September, with the probability rising from 24% before the meeting to 34.8%. This followed the Fed's decision on Wednesday to keep rates unchanged amid internal disagreements, with Chairman Warsh promising to firmly suppress inflation but failing to clarify the future path, leaving the market confused. The euro rose 0.5% against the dollar to $1.15318, and the pound rose 0.8% against the dollar to $1.34755, as the Bank of England kept interest rates unchanged on Thursday, but renewed hostilities led a third policymaker to support a rate hike. The market is now focused on the Bank of Japan meeting on Friday, with economists expecting rates to remain at 1%, but recent reports suggest policymakers are considering accelerating the pace of rate hikes to address inflationary pressures from the Iran war.

International News

The probability of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates by 25 basis points in September is 63.4%, and the probability of a 50 basis point rate hike this year is approximately 43.1%. According to CME's "FedWatch": the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged by September is 36.6%, with a cumulative probability of a 25 basis point rate hike of 63.4%. The probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged by October is 26.9%, with a cumulative probability of a 25 basis point rate hike of 56.3% and a cumulative probability of a 50 basis point rate hike of 16.9%. The probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged by December is 14.3%, with a cumulative probability of a 25 basis point rate hike of 42.6% and a probability of at least a 50 basis point rate hike of 43.1%. The Trump administration plans to restart several shut-down refineries . Affected by the Iranian conflict driving up gasoline prices, the Trump administration plans to restart several closed refineries, including a struggling refinery in the Virgin Islands. A White House official confirmed via email on Thursday that the Trump administration "hopes to resume production at refineries across the country, particularly the St. Croy Island refinery." The official stated that the refinery is of particular interest because it was originally designed to process Venezuelan crude oil and because of its "strategic value." This policy push comes against the backdrop of persistently high gasoline prices in the United States due to the conflict with Iran. Data from the American Automobile Association (AAA) shows that as of Thursday, the average price of gasoline across the country was approximately $4.10 per gallon, more than $1 higher than at the beginning of the conflict earlier this year. The US Senate failed to pass a resolution limiting military action against Iran . The US Senate on Thursday rejected a procedural motion that sought to advance a war powers resolution limiting military action against Iran. The vote was 49 to 50, and the motion failed to pass. The motion sought to remove Senator Kirsten Gillibrand's Resolution SJRes. 181 from the Senate Foreign Relations Committee and put it to the full Senate for consideration. This resolution, based on the War Powers Resolution, requires congressional authorization before the United States can conduct specific military action against Iran. The Trump administration is considering charging international students a $100,000 fee to stay and work in the U.S. Sources familiar with the matter revealed that the Trump administration is considering a policy that would charge international students who wish to work in the U.S. after graduating from a U.S. college or university. This move would significantly reduce the attractiveness of studying in the U.S. for international students. If implemented, this fee would strongly advance President Trump's policy goal of restricting all types of legal immigration. The hardest hit would be U.S. colleges and universities (international students are a stable source of revenue for schools) and leading companies in Silicon Valley and Wall Street—these companies hire a large number of international graduates to fill technical job vacancies. The fee would be charged to the Optional Practical Training (OPT) program. OPT allows international graduates holding student visas to work in the U.S. for one to three years. The latest available data shows that approximately 419,000 foreign nationals will be employed in the U.S. through OPT in 2024. Essentially, this policy aims to achieve the government's previous goal of charging a $100,000 fee for H-1B visas for foreign professionals. This visa fee proposal caused considerable panic in Silicon Valley last year, but a Boston appeals court last week halted the government's plan to impose H-1B-related fees. Russia Extends Fuel Export Ban for 6 Months The Russian government announced on July 30 that, in order to stabilize the domestic fuel market, it has decided to extend the export ban on gasoline, diesel, marine fuel, and light diesel for another six months, from August 1, 2026 to January 31, 2027. Meanwhile, according to the new regulations, from September 1, fuel production companies will be exempt from the ban on direct exports of diesel, marine fuel, and light diesel. (CCTV News) Bank of England Keeps Interest Rates Unchanged by 6-3 The Bank of England kept its interest rate unchanged at 3.75%. British officials are attempting to balance the risk of renewed tensions between the US and Iran with signs that domestic price pressures are easing faster than expected. Minutes released on Thursday showed that the Monetary Policy Committee decided to maintain the rate by a 6-3 vote. Chief Economist Huw Pill, along with external members Megan Greene and Catherine Mann, advocated for a 25 basis point rate hike. At the June meeting, only Pill and Greene supported immediate action. The Bank of England maintained its policy guidance, stating that the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) was "ready to act" to prevent persistent high inflation, thus preserving policy options. The external environment remains highly unpredictable. Just days before the decision was announced, oil and gas prices were already significantly higher than the average level used by the Bank of England in its baseline forecast only ten days earlier. However, the MPC stated that there were "clear signs" that domestic inflationary pressures were easing, and so far there was "little evidence" that the energy shock had driven up wage demands and prices in other sectors. Most of the members who supported keeping interest rates unchanged also indicated that their strategy might be adjusted if the war ended quickly. Two members said they would consider cutting rates in that scenario. Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey stated: "There is currently little evidence of a second-round effect, although it is too early to be comforted by this. The global environment looks more uncertain and more prone to inflation, while the domestic situation is generally more benign in terms of the inflation outlook, making it appropriate to keep interest rates unchanged."

Domestic News

China Leads the World in Open-Source Model Downloads A spring report from the world's largest open-source AI model platform in 2026 shows that open-source models developed in China account for 41% of global downloads, surpassing the United States to rank first in the world. All six top-ranked models on the global mainstream large-scale model call list are from Chinese teams. In the past 12 months, Chinese models have maintained the upper limit of global open-source model scale for nine months, continuously leading the world in iteration speed. The cumulative downloads of China's open-source models have exceeded 10 billion, ranking first globally. (CCTV News) " New Three Elements" Create a Million-Level Talent Shortage Robots are rapidly entering production lines, AI large-scale models are penetrating thousands of industries, and domestically developed innovative drugs are being approved for export in large numbers. These "new three elements" are booming, creating a large number of new job opportunities. In the spring recruitment of 2026, the shortage rate of compound talents who understand both AI and medicine reached 38%, with the shortage expected to reach 2.5 million people. The salary level of these "dual-skilled talents" is 30% higher than that of traditional positions. Grasping the macro trends and understanding new signals in the job market: The "15th Five-Year Plan for Educational Development" for the first time directly links employment status with enrollment plans and talent cultivation, implementing a red and yellow card system. This means that the demand in the job market—especially in the "new three new" fields—will directly determine the "life or death" of university majors: majors not needed by the market will be warned or even discontinued. New majors and new colleges are being established intensively, opening up new career paths: For new professions such as robotics engineering technicians, new undergraduate and associate degree programs in humanoid robot engineering technology, digital twin engineering technology, and vehicle networking communication technology will be added. In 2026, new vocational education majors will focus on the digital economy, low-altitude economy, artificial intelligence, and high-end equipment. For fields such as biomedicine and artificial intelligence, the plan proposes exploring the construction of "science and technology business schools." (CCTV Finance) He Lifeng Holds Video Call with US Treasury Secretary Bessenter and Trade Representative Greer On the evening of July 30, Beijing time, He Lifeng, Vice Premier of the State Council and China's lead negotiator for China-US economic and trade relations, held a video call with his US counterparts, US Treasury Secretary Bessenter and Trade Representative Greer. The two sides conducted a frank, in-depth, and constructive exchange on implementing the important consensus reached at the Beijing meeting between the two heads of state, maintaining stable economic and trade relations, expanding pragmatic cooperation, and properly addressing each other's concerns in the next stage. China expressed serious concern regarding the recent US trade restrictions on China. Both sides agreed that, under the strategic guidance of the two heads of state, they would further leverage the role of the China-US economic and trade consultation mechanism, strengthen communication, build trust, expand cooperation, promote the stable and positive development of China-US economic and trade relations, and contribute to building a constructive and strategically stable China-US relationship. (Xinhua News Agency)