While international crude oil futures prices have stabilized, the deep-seated crisis in the global energy market remains unresolved. Compared to the fluctuating crude oil market, the physical fuel market is experiencing a persistent supply shortage. From professional physical trading analysts to top oil giants like Shell, ExxonMobil, and Chevron, a collective risk warning has been issued: regardless of fluctuations in international crude oil prices, global gasoline, diesel, and other refined oil prices will remain high for an extended period. Geopolitical conflicts, export controls in many countries, and limited refinery capacity are all contributing to a global refining system supply-demand imbalance, and a hidden fuel shortage crisis is brewing.

Market perception is skewed: futures prices are inaccurate, and physical fuel prices remain in short supply.

For a long time, market participants have relied on crude oil futures prices to judge energy trends, neglecting the real changes in the physical market. Affected by the continued spread of shipping blockades in the Middle East, disruptions to the energy supply chain have spread from the Strait of Hormuz to the Red Sea region, creating a significant price difference between physical fuel oil prices and crude oil futures prices. Recent news of peace negotiations has led to a decline in crude oil futures prices from their highs, but the tight situation in the physical refined oil market has not eased at all, and the supply-demand mismatch problem is becoming increasingly prominent. Neil Hansen, Chief Financial Officer of ExxonMobil, stated that the core bottleneck in the current energy system is not crude oil production capacity, but the refining process, a key pain point that most market investors have not yet fully addressed. The current global energy contradiction has completely shifted; there is no shortage of crude oil raw materials, but a shortage of refined oil products that can be directly used in industry and daily life, which has become the most fundamental characteristic of this round of energy crisis.

Multiple negative factors combined to cause a significant reduction in global refining capacity.

Multiple external shocks continue to suppress global refined oil supply. Middle East geopolitical conflicts and the Russia-Ukraine conflict continue to disrupt energy trade, compounded by fuel export controls by major Asian countries and Russia's diesel export ban. These combined factors have directly led to a 10% reduction in global effective refining capacity. This seemingly small decline in capacity has precisely targeted the weakest link in the global energy supply and demand balance, completely disrupting the refined oil supply-demand equilibrium. The Middle East is both a core global crude oil exporter and a significant refined oil exporter; geopolitical instability has directly triggered a continuous depletion of global fuel oil inventories. Joe DeLaura, senior energy strategist at Rabobank, stated that currently, most refineries in the Persian Gulf have their refined oil export routes blocked, leading to a comprehensive diesel shortage. Unlike crude oil, diesel is a core necessity in the modern industrial economy. The entire industrial chain, including agricultural production, infrastructure construction, mining, and logistics, is highly dependent on diesel supply. A diesel shortage will directly impact the global real economy.

The combined effect of refineries operating at overcapacity and the maintenance season exacerbates the autumn crisis.

Global refineries are currently operating at maximum capacity, with leading U.S. refineries reaching record high operating rates. Data shows that ExxonMobil's Gulf Coast refineries are operating at 95% capacity, Chevron's at 97%, and Shell's at over 102% in the second quarter, with overcapacity becoming the norm. This extreme capacity cannot be sustained indefinitely, leading to continuous accumulation of equipment wear and safety risks. In summary , the core issue of this energy crisis has shifted from crude oil shortages to the shortage of refined oil production capacity and logistics supply. Short-term maintenance cycles and long-term geopolitical uncertainties will continue to suppress supply, further solidifying support for fuel prices. For the commodity market and the real economy, the persistently tight fuel supply and demand situation will be a core risk that must be addressed in the second half of the year.