On Tuesday (August 4), the US dollar index remained stable during the European session, trading at 100.0249, up 0.06%. Traders will be focusing on the ADP private sector employment data and the highly anticipated US non-farm payroll report. The US dollar received some support at the beginning of the week. The recent intervention in the yen may have ended, eliminating a key risk of further downward pressure on the dollar for the remainder of the week. Furthermore, dollar positioning is likely more balanced compared to a week ago. According to data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, net long positions in the dollar rose to $48.5 billion ahead of the Fed meeting, an 11-year high, less than $3 billion away from the historical record. If last week's "position squared effect" exacerbated the dollar's decline, more convincing macroeconomic evidence is needed for further declines. In other words, weak economic data is needed to justify a new round of easing policies. Yesterday, the ISM Manufacturing Index exceeded expectations, with a significant increase in the employment sub-index. For the remainder of the week, market focus will be on the employment market. Today, attention will be on the June JOLTS job openings, which are expected to fall below 7.5 million. Unless tomorrow's ADP data, and more importantly, Friday's employment data, indicate a significant deterioration in the job market (the market currently expects 80,000 new jobs, a figure that suggests this is not the case), the dollar is unlikely to fall further in the short term. Uncertainty surrounding the next steps in US-Iran negotiations also helps alleviate downward pressure on oil prices. The market is likely to maintain its expectation of a Fed rate hike of over 50% in September (currently at 65%), thus the dollar is poised for a moderately bullish week. Technical Analysis The US dollar index traded around 100.02 during the session. After a rapid decline last week, the price retraced to the lower edge of the medium-term upward channel, forming a lower shadow and finding support. The market did not show any strong reversal signals, but rather leaned towards a mild correction. Coupled with the upcoming important non-farm payroll data, overall trading sentiment was cautious. The parallel upward channel extending from the February 2026 low of 95.56 on the daily chart remains the core framework for the medium term. After this round of decline, the price tested the lower edge of the channel and found buying support. However, a single lower shadow only represents the release of short-term bearish momentum and is not sufficient to confirm a trend reversal. If the daily candlestick breaks below the lower edge of the channel and the 200-day moving average (99.17), this medium-term upward channel structure will be destroyed. The price is currently fluctuating between the 50-day moving average at 100.53 and the 100-day moving average at 99.74. For a short-term upward rebound to open up further upside potential, the daily closing price needs to hold above the 100.45 resistance level to confirm this mild rebound technically. The subsequent upside target is the middle channel line at 101.61, with key support at the previous low of 99.42. In terms of indicators, the MACD remains in negative territory and has not formed a valid golden cross. The RSI has slightly rebounded from oversold territory but is still below the 50 neutral line, indicating a lack of strong bullish confirmation in momentum, further suggesting a moderate rebound. Overall, market sentiment is cautious ahead of the non-farm payroll data release, and the market is more likely to experience a mild rebound and range-bound trading pattern.