Spot silver (XAG/USD) continued its upward trend on Monday, rising for the second consecutive trading day, with prices hovering around $64.30. Following weak US non-farm payroll data on Friday, silver surged and recorded its best weekly performance since February, and the bullish trend remains intact. The cooling US job market has become a major factor driving the rise in precious metals. Data from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics showed that non-farm payrolls in the US decreased by 23,000 in July, a stark contrast to market expectations of an 80,000 increase. Simultaneously, employment data for the previous two months were also significantly revised downwards. This significant slowdown in US job growth has further reduced market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate hike, pushing the US dollar index weaker. The interest rate market is rapidly adjusting policy expectations. According to market interest rate tools, investors expect the probability of a Fed rate hike in September to have fallen from 67% a week ago to approximately 44%. With the US dollar index falling below the key 100 level, the precious metals market as a whole has received support. Silver has benefited from a weaker dollar and lower real interest rate expectations, continuing to attract buying. However, the market remains focused on the upcoming US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data. If inflation continues to cool, investors may further reduce their expectations for Fed tightening, putting further pressure on the dollar and providing room for silver to rise. But if inflation is stronger than expected, the Fed's policy path may shift back towards caution, potentially limiting silver's short-term gains. Besides monetary policy factors, industrial demand is also a significant support for the silver market. Silver possesses attributes of both precious and industrial metals. Global manufacturing recovery expectations, energy transition-related demand, and changes in technology industry demand may all influence its medium- to long-term price performance. Current market sentiment is clearly bullish. After breaking through the key area of $63.30, silver confirmed the previously formed head and shoulders bottom reversal structure, further improving its technical outlook. If the US dollar continues to weaken, and the Fed's policy expectations shift further towards easing, silver may continue its upward trend. From a daily chart perspective, XAG/USD has broken through the resistance near $63.30 and completed the head and shoulders bottom pattern confirmation. Technical indicators show that market momentum continues to strengthen; the RSI (14) indicator is above 60 and continues to rise, indicating that buyers still have the upper hand; the MACD indicator has further entered the positive zone, reflecting that upward momentum remains. The current upside target is the $67.15 to $67.20 area, which is close to the theoretical target of the head and shoulders bottom pattern and the June high area. If it continues to break through, it may further challenge the resistance near the 200-day moving average and the mid-range resistance of $77. The first support level to watch is $63.30. A break below this level could lead to a pullback to test the $61.00 area, with further support at the $59.40 region. Looking at the 4-hour chart, silver maintains a strong upward trend in the short term, having entered a high-level trading phase after breaking through $63. Short-term moving averages remain upward-sloping, and technical indicators suggest that bullish momentum is still being released, but a technical correction is needed after the rapid rise. If the price can hold above $63.30, there is still a chance to continue testing the $65.50 and $67 areas in the short term; a break below $63 could trigger profit-taking, with a pullback target around $61. Editor's Summary: Silver is currently driven by a weakening dollar, declining expectations of a Fed rate hike, and a technical breakout, giving it a clear short-term bullish advantage. Weak US employment data has altered market expectations regarding interest rate paths, providing support for precious metals as a whole. The key to future price movements lies in whether US CPI data further confirms a downward trend in inflation. If Fed policy expectations continue to shift towards easing, silver still has the potential to extend towards $67 or even higher; however, if inflation rebounds, a stronger dollar could bring short-term downward pressure. Investors should pay close attention to the effectiveness of the $63.30 support level.