Iran says it will not negotiate with the United States before the end of Trump's term.
2026-08-11 02:30:56
This is undoubtedly a major blow to efforts to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and ease tensions in the Middle East. Iran has stated it will not engage in any further negotiations with US President Donald Trump. This news comes from Iranian media reports and a post on the X platform by an advisor to Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf. Reports indicate that Tehran will wait until January 20, 2029, after the US president's term ends, before resuming negotiations. 
“Trump will not reach any agreement with us. We will stand by him until the end of his term,” said Majid Shakri, an advisor to Ghalibaf. Shakri further elaborated on Iran’s long-term strategic thinking, emphasizing that in the current situation, the path to victory is neither simple military confrontation nor a hasty agreement, but rather “managing a process that is neither war nor peace until final victory.” He publicly stated that publicly confirming negotiations with the United States is “pure folly,” and that Iran should adopt a policy of denial, ambiguity, and “strategic patience.” This stance reflects a severe lack of trust in the Trump administration within Tehran, with a perception that the possibility of a substantial breakthrough with the current US government is extremely low. The previous day, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi also clearly stated that Iran is not currently engaged in any direct negotiations with the United States, and communication is limited to indirect contact through intermediaries. Araqchi stressed that Tehran will not return to formal talks unless Washington addresses what Iran claims are violations of the Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) reached earlier this year. Iran maintains its core conditions remain unchanged, including demanding approximately $300 billion in war reparations from the United States, the unfreezing of frozen Iranian assets, and the withdrawal of US troops from the region. Only when these conditions are met can the Strait of Hormuz be reopened. Due to the unresolved Hormuz issue, oil risk premiums remain high. According to TD Securities, an agreement on the Strait of Hormuz issue remains elusive. The bank noted, "A solution to the Strait of Hormuz issue is still nowhere to be found." Analysts believe that with the Houthi attacks on Saudi energy infrastructure, energy transport through the Strait of Hormuz and the Baburmand Strait continues to be severely hampered, and the risk situation is constantly escalating. Due to ongoing attacks in Ukraine, Russia's oil exports and refining operations remain sluggish. All these factors are continuously pushing up the geopolitical risk premium in the oil sector. Meanwhile, negotiations between Iran and Oman on a new shipping route through the straits have entered the "final stage," with both sides conducting expert-level mapping work on a new passage to replace the old route. However, Iranian Foreign Minister Araqchi clearly stated that reaching an agreement with Oman does not mean the immediate reopening of the Strait of Hormuz; reopening still depends on the United States, through intermediaries, meeting a series of conditions put forward by Tehran. Mohammad Bagher Zorgader, Secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, recently listed more detailed demands, including a permanent cessation of US threats and aggression against Iran and its regional allies, lifting the naval blockade of Iranian ports, full compensation for war losses, lifting sanctions, and unconditionally releasing frozen assets. This hardline stance has further exacerbated market concerns about energy supply disruptions. The Strait of Hormuz, a key passage for approximately one-fifth of global oil transport, has seen its continued closure lead to persistently high geopolitical risk premiums on oil prices. Analysts point out that against the backdrop of Iran adopting a "strategic patience" approach, waiting for the Trump administration to end its term before resuming discussions, the prospect of reopening the Strait in the short term is increasingly bleak, and uncertainty in the global energy market will persist.
“Trump will not reach any agreement with us. We will stand by him until the end of his term,” said Majid Shakri, an advisor to Ghalibaf. Shakri further elaborated on Iran’s long-term strategic thinking, emphasizing that in the current situation, the path to victory is neither simple military confrontation nor a hasty agreement, but rather “managing a process that is neither war nor peace until final victory.” He publicly stated that publicly confirming negotiations with the United States is “pure folly,” and that Iran should adopt a policy of denial, ambiguity, and “strategic patience.” This stance reflects a severe lack of trust in the Trump administration within Tehran, with a perception that the possibility of a substantial breakthrough with the current US government is extremely low. The previous day, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi also clearly stated that Iran is not currently engaged in any direct negotiations with the United States, and communication is limited to indirect contact through intermediaries. Araqchi stressed that Tehran will not return to formal talks unless Washington addresses what Iran claims are violations of the Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) reached earlier this year. Iran maintains its core conditions remain unchanged, including demanding approximately $300 billion in war reparations from the United States, the unfreezing of frozen Iranian assets, and the withdrawal of US troops from the region. Only when these conditions are met can the Strait of Hormuz be reopened. Due to the unresolved Hormuz issue, oil risk premiums remain high. According to TD Securities, an agreement on the Strait of Hormuz issue remains elusive. The bank noted, "A solution to the Strait of Hormuz issue is still nowhere to be found." Analysts believe that with the Houthi attacks on Saudi energy infrastructure, energy transport through the Strait of Hormuz and the Baburmand Strait continues to be severely hampered, and the risk situation is constantly escalating. Due to ongoing attacks in Ukraine, Russia's oil exports and refining operations remain sluggish. All these factors are continuously pushing up the geopolitical risk premium in the oil sector. Meanwhile, negotiations between Iran and Oman on a new shipping route through the straits have entered the "final stage," with both sides conducting expert-level mapping work on a new passage to replace the old route. However, Iranian Foreign Minister Araqchi clearly stated that reaching an agreement with Oman does not mean the immediate reopening of the Strait of Hormuz; reopening still depends on the United States, through intermediaries, meeting a series of conditions put forward by Tehran. Mohammad Bagher Zorgader, Secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, recently listed more detailed demands, including a permanent cessation of US threats and aggression against Iran and its regional allies, lifting the naval blockade of Iranian ports, full compensation for war losses, lifting sanctions, and unconditionally releasing frozen assets. This hardline stance has further exacerbated market concerns about energy supply disruptions. The Strait of Hormuz, a key passage for approximately one-fifth of global oil transport, has seen its continued closure lead to persistently high geopolitical risk premiums on oil prices. Analysts point out that against the backdrop of Iran adopting a "strategic patience" approach, waiting for the Trump administration to end its term before resuming discussions, the prospect of reopening the Strait in the short term is increasingly bleak, and uncertainty in the global energy market will persist.
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