The international crude oil market was relatively stable during Asian trading hours on Tuesday. WTI crude oil prices entered a consolidation phase after a sharp rise in the previous session, currently trading around $82.20 per barrel. The previous day's price increase of over 6.5% was mainly due to the market reassessing supply risks, particularly given the significant uncertainty surrounding the prospects for the resumption of key energy transportation routes. Market expectations for a rapid de-escalation of the situation have declined significantly recently. Previously, investors had bet that diplomatic channels might de-escalate the situation and lead to a gradual lifting of transportation restrictions, but the latest developments indicate that negotiations still face significant obstacles. Market participants point out that the slower-than-expected recovery of energy supply has prompted the crude oil market to re-induce a supply risk premium . New demands from the US have diminished market confidence in a short-term agreement. These demands involve broader compensation and security arrangements, raising concerns among investors that the negotiation process may become more complex. Meanwhile, previously proposed compensation conditions have also increased the difficulty of coordination between the two sides, leading the market to reassess the timeline for energy transportation recovery. The core focus remains on whether key shipping routes can resume stable operation. This region has long served as a vital energy transportation hub, and disruptions could impact the stability of the global crude oil supply chain. Although there is currently no long-term supply gap in the market, traders believe that any sustained transportation restrictions could drive oil prices further up , especially given the relatively sensitive level of global crude oil inventories. Unlike previous market expectations of a swift diplomatic solution, current signals suggest that in the short term, progress will likely rely more on economic pressure and negotiations than on immediate, forceful measures to restore transportation. Therefore, the market is lowering expectations for a quick resolution to risk events and increasing bets on continued high oil prices. TD Securities' analysis team stated that agreements regarding the restoration of key shipping routes remain difficult to achieve, and related risks continue to support the oil market's performance. The institution believes that supply chain disruption risks and market uncertainty are driving a sustained upward trend in oil prices , and trend-following funds are also beginning to increase their allocation to energy assets again. From a global market perspective, rising oil prices may again impact inflation expectations. If energy prices continue to rise, the rate of inflation decline in some economies may be affected, thus influencing the future policy paths of major central banks. The market is currently not only focusing on changes in the supply and demand of oil itself, but also observing the spillover effects of rising oil prices on the US dollar, bond yields, and risk asset sentiment. The market is currently focusing on three key aspects: first, whether there will be a breakthrough in geopolitical negotiations; second, whether key transportation routes can return to normal; and finally, whether major oil-producing countries will alleviate market tensions by adjusting supply policies. Given the uncertainty on the supply side, oil prices are likely to remain highly volatile in the short term. From a daily chart perspective, WTI crude oil has rebounded after ending its previous correction, with prices regaining the key $80 area, indicating a recovery in buying momentum. Currently, oil prices are trading above short-term moving averages, and the trend structure is improving. If prices continue to break through the resistance area near $82.50, they may further test the $85 level. Support is seen around $79; a break below this area could lead to a retest of the $76.50-$77 area. Overall, the daily momentum is strong, but we still need to be wary of rapid reversals caused by news events. Observing the 4-hour chart, WTI crude oil is maintaining a high-level consolidation pattern in the short term, with the market entering a technical correction phase after the previous rapid rise. Short-term indicators show that upward momentum has slowed, but prices are still holding above key support. If oil prices can stably break through the $82 area, they may continue to advance towards $84-$85 in the short term; if they fail to break through and fall below the $79 support, it may trigger some profit-taking, pushing prices back to around $77 to find new buying support. Editor's Summary: The core logic of the current crude oil market has shifted from simply focusing on demand changes to repricing supply risks and geopolitical uncertainties. While the market still expects diplomatic channels to improve the supply environment, difficulties in advancing an agreement in the short term provide additional support for oil prices. Future oil price movements will primarily depend on the progress of negotiations, the recovery of transportation, and the supply adjustment capabilities of major oil-producing countries. If supply risks persist, WTI crude oil may continue to trade at high levels and test higher resistance areas; however, if clear signs of easing emerge in the market, the risk premium may fall rapidly. Therefore, investors need to pay attention to upward opportunities while being wary of sharp fluctuations caused by changing events.