Continuing from the previous point, another factor contributing to the continued rise in oil prices is the tough stance taken by both sides, coupled with the inability to finalize a specific negotiation schedule. This suggests that short-term oil prices may not see positive developments. However, significant changes have recently occurred in the geopolitical landscape: Iran has completed a strong reshuffle at the top level, openly severing any room for negotiation, forcing the United States to abandon its original military tactics and complete a major strategic shift. This continues to raise the short-term geopolitical risk premium for crude oil. But over a longer period, the urgency for rising oil prices is not as great.

Iran adopts a hardline stance, effectively closing off all avenues for peace talks. Hardliners in power issue harsh statements.

Following on from the previous text, it has been clearly mentioned that Iran is currently playing a hardline card because they anticipate the difficult situation facing the United States and have confidence in their own country's resilience. For example, they can use shipping fees to subsidize military spending, and their trade agreement with Pakistan can provide them with supplies. Iran's current attitude has become completely resolute. The newly appointed Supreme Leader Mojtaba has consolidated military and political power, vigorously appointing hardline generals from the Revolutionary Guard to take over core national security positions, thoroughly solidifying its internal hardline confrontational stance. Based on this, Iranian officials have issued a final, hardline statement, explicitly stating that they will not negotiate during Trump's term and will continue the confrontation to the end, which is tantamount to a clear statement that there is no possibility of US-Iran peace talks until Trump steps down. At the same time, Iran has set extremely high negotiation thresholds, demanding that the US lift the blockade, withdraw sanctions, and compensate for five months of losses from the war before reopening the Strait of Hormuz. This completely hardline confrontational stance has completely shattered market expectations of a de-escalation, and the US-Iran game has entered a long-term stalemate.

A major strategic shift in the United States: abandoning military offensives and turning to maximum economic pressure.

Faced with a new, hardline standoff with Iran, the White House and top cabinet officials have completed a new round of strategic review, formally abandoning the previous approach of using military strikes to break the deadlock. US officials revealed that the Trump administration has finalized its latest strategy: suspending all new rounds of military airstrikes and refusing a full-scale war, instead relying on long-term financial sanctions and the blockade of Iranian ports and seas to continuously deplete Iran's economic fundamentals, replacing hot war with an economic war of attrition. The White House staff provided Trump with detailed data to support the claim that existing sanctions have already dealt a devastating blow to the Iranian economy, and that escalating economic penalties and adding new restrictions is currently the only optimal path to force Iran to compromise. Trump has fully adopted this strategy. Trump publicly stated, "Iran's finances are exhausted, and its economy is completely paralyzed." This shift in US policy is the final conclusion after numerous trials and errors: previous military strikes failed to cripple the Iranian regime or curb its nuclear development, and the subsequent interim peace agreement also completely collapsed. Senior US officials summarized the core patterns, with US Ambassador to the UN, Walz, stating the key differences: Iran has an extremely high tolerance for military bombing, disregarding military casualties and civilian deaths, and conventional warfare cannot force it to compromise; however, Iran is currently experiencing its worst hyperinflation in eighty years, with its currency plummeting, and is extremely fearful of economic sanctions, even actively seeking US financial assistance in negotiations. Economic sanctions are the only effective means to control Iran. Regarding Iran's demands for compensation for lost airspace, Trump directly and forcefully rejected them, instead establishing a bottom line for negotiations: demanding that Iran compensate for US casualties caused by proxy forces over decades, as well as the losses of families of those killed in Iranian demonstrations, and that this compensation clause be rigidly incorporated into all future negotiation frameworks. In response, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Bagay retorted that US sanctions and pressure are useless, a flawed and incompetent diplomatic tactic that will ultimately only backfire on the US, ruining its chance to gracefully exit the crisis. However, this may lead to the US appearing powerless in the short term.

A major shift in long-term energy fundamentals: The US is proactively reducing its reliance on cross-strait shipping.

The most easily overlooked yet most far-reaching aspect of this strategic adjustment is the rewriting of the long-term fundamentals of global oil supply. US Treasury Secretary Bessenter explicitly pointed out that US economic pressure has caused Iranian inflation to soar into the triple digits and its currency to depreciate in freefall. More importantly, the US is proactively reducing global energy dependence on sea transport through the Strait of Hormuz. Bessenter predicts that in the next two years, 50%-70% of seaborne oil transport through the Strait of Hormuz will be entirely switched to land-based pipelines, further weakening the strategic scarcity value of the Persian Gulf shipping route and systematically diluting Iran's "ship route blockade trump card" against the West. Former White House energy advisor Goldberg also analyzed that it is precisely based on this long-term transformation logic that the US dares to completely abandon military adventurism: avoiding the risk of a systemic collapse in oil prices due to a full-scale war in the short term, and gradually crippling Iran's geopolitical deterrent capabilities in the long term, is the most cost-effective strategic solution.

US Political Demands and Outlook for the Crude Oil Market

The current tug-of-war between the US and Iran is likely to continue. Iran believes it has the capacity for sustained resistance and attrition, as it is also a country sanctioned for many years. The US strategic shift stems from the limited effectiveness of continuous bombing campaigns and the need to address domestic midterm election pressures. The key question now is how long Iran can withstand the pressure and whether the oil market's dependence on the Strait of Hormuz will gradually decrease, as the US claims. Trump's approval rating regarding the Iran conflict continues to decline, falling from 34% in June to 28%, jeopardizing the Republican Party's slim majority in Congress. Abandoning a high-risk hot war and opting for controlled economic pressure allows the US to project a tough image internationally, avoiding accusations of weakness and compromise, while also preventing the war from spiraling out of control and triggering a surge in oil prices, impacting domestic livelihoods and the election. Internally, the US clearly recognizes that there is no optimal solution in this game. Brewer, a senior nuclear strategist in the White House and intelligence agencies, warns that continued economic sanctions will further cripple the Iranian economy, inevitably leading to a retaliatory counterattack. Furthermore, Iran's crisis tolerance and long-term resilience are superior to the US, leaving the US with only the lowest-risk, protracted war option. Trump privately stated that if Iran fully resumes navigation through the Strait of Hormuz, the US could declare victory in the war even without a nuclear agreement. Vice President Vance summarized that the US will maintain long-term, comprehensive pressure to steadily guarantee Middle Eastern oil and gas exports and stabilize domestic energy prices in the US. Overall, the market structure has become completely solidified: hardliners in Iran refuse reconciliation with the US, the US has abandoned military action and is focusing on a protracted economic war, coupled with the long-term shift in global reliance on seaborne oil shipping, resulting in an unsolvable stalemate between the US and Iran. The high-risk operation of the two Middle Eastern shipping routes, coupled with the high-risk, low-flow, and high-risk premium situation for oil, has become the norm. As discussed in the previous technical article, after breaking through the previous gap range and undergoing a short-term correction, the strength of the current price stabilization will directly determine the continuation of the next round of price increases.