Spot silver retreated to around $65.40 during Asian trading on Tuesday, undergoing a technical correction after two consecutive days of gains. The silver market is currently influenced by two opposing forces: on the one hand, weak US employment and inflation data have reduced market bets on further interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve, providing financial support for precious metals; on the other hand, continued tensions between the US and Iran could reignite oil supply risks and suppress silver's upside potential through inflation expectations. Recent US macroeconomic data has significantly weakened market expectations for further tightening of short-term monetary policy. The unexpectedly weak July non-farm payroll data, coupled with relatively mild recent consumer inflation data, has led investors to reassess the outlook for US economic growth and monetary policy. The market's current pricing in a rate hike at the next Fed meeting has fallen to around 35%, down from approximately 47% a month ago. If employment and inflation continue to cool, the dollar and US Treasury yields may face further pressure, thereby reducing the opportunity cost of holding non-interest-bearing precious metals. Silver has therefore received some fundamental support. Compared to gold, silver possesses both precious metal attributes and strong industrial attributes; therefore, its price is not only affected by interest rates and the dollar but also highly dependent on global manufacturing and industrial demand expectations. When monetary policy shifts to easing and financing costs decline, silver typically benefits from precious metal investment demand; if global economic growth expectations improve, industrial demand expectations can provide additional support. However, current changes in the energy market are increasing the uncertainty surrounding silver's price movement. The temporary arrangements between the US and Iran have failed to continue, and regional supply risks have resurfaced. If shipping through the Strait of Hormuz is further disrupted, international oil prices could rise rapidly. If rising oil prices once again become the core driver of market inflation trading, it will weaken market confidence in further easing by the Federal Reserve and may suppress silver through the dollar and US Treasury yield channels. Therefore, silver currently faces a complex macroeconomic environment: declining expectations of Fed rate hikes are a positive factor, while the inflationary risks from rising energy prices constitute a reverse pressure. Compared to simple safe-haven trading, silver prices are currently more sensitive to US interest rates, the dollar, and industrial demand expectations. Market fund allocation has also changed. Market strategists believe that moderate inflation, weak US job market performance, and the lack of a sustained surge in oil prices have improved overall risk appetite in the precious metals market. As gold prices enter a new trading range, some funds are increasing their long positions in precious metals, and this inflow can indirectly improve market sentiment for silver. Looking at the correlation between gold and silver, a strong gold price usually provides some room for silver to follow suit. If gold can continue to break through key resistance levels, silver may benefit from a spillover effect; conversely, if the dollar suddenly rebounds or US real interest rates rise rapidly, silver, due to its generally higher volatility than gold, may face more significant downward pressure. Investors are currently awaiting the minutes of the Fed's July meeting. The meeting minutes will help the market determine policymakers' true views on employment, inflation, and the future path of interest rates. If the minutes reveal a clear dovish bias, silver may regain upward momentum; if policymakers emphasize that inflation risks remain high, the market may raise interest rate expectations again, putting pressure on silver. From a market sentiment perspective, silver remains in a bullish structure in the short term, but profit-taking after continuous gains is normal. As long as the price can hold key moving average support, the current pullback can still be seen as a normal consolidation within an uptrend, rather than a trend reversal. What is truly worrisome is whether market funds will begin to shift from precious metals to safe-haven assets such as the US dollar after the price breaks through multiple dynamic support levels. From a daily chart perspective, spot silver is currently trading around $65.40, with the price still above the 9-day and 50-day exponential moving averages, and short-term moving averages above long-term moving averages, indicating an overall bullish technical structure. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is around 60.51, in positive territory but not yet overbought, suggesting that the current upward momentum still has room to continue, but the risk of a short-term pullback should not be ignored. The first support level to watch is the 9-day moving average around $64.27. If the price can stabilize in this area, the short-term bullish structure remains intact. Further support lies at the 50-day moving average around $63.33, a crucial level for determining whether the current upward trend will continue. If $63.33 is breached, the market may further retrace to the support level around $55.63, at which point the medium-term technical structure of silver will clearly weaken. On the upside, the current price still has significant room to move towards higher-period resistance levels. The resistance around $90 is a more distant technical target, not a direct short-term resistance. Therefore, at this stage, it's more important to focus on whether the price can break through recent highs and form a new upward range, rather than directly using $90 as a short-term trading target. From the 4-hour chart, silver has entered a short-term correction after a continuous rise, with the $65 area being a key battleground between bulls and bears. If the price re-establishes itself above $66 and breaks through recent highs, short-term bullish momentum may recover; if it falls below $64.27, it means the short-term correction will widen, and the price may further test $63.33. Overall, the 4-hour chart still shows a bullish bias, but in the short term, it's necessary to be wary of high-level fluctuations and profit-taking. Editor's Summary: Silver is currently in a complex environment characterized by favorable macroeconomic policy expectations and suppressed by geopolitical and inflationary risks. Declining expectations of a Fed rate hike, a potential weakening dollar, and the reallocation of funds in precious metals are the main factors supporting silver's short-to-medium-term trend. Meanwhile , rising oil prices could reignite inflation expectations, posing the biggest potential risk variable. Future silver price movements will largely depend on the Fed meeting minutes, the dollar index, US Treasury yields, and oil price changes. If the Fed further signals a dovish stance and the dollar remains weak, silver is likely to retest recent highs; conversely, if a sharp rise in oil prices leads to increased inflation expectations and the market raises interest rate expectations again, silver may experience a further correction.