The dollar index remained around 99.60 in Asian trading on Wednesday, after rising slightly in the previous session. Market attention is currently focused on the minutes of the Federal Reserve's July policy meeting, with investors hoping to glean more clues about the path of interest rates and policy disagreements within the decision-making body. Against the backdrop of recent mixed US economic data, the dollar is currently caught in a tug-of-war between safe-haven demand and expectations of interest rate cuts. The US dollar has recently received some support, mainly due to a cooling of risk appetite in global markets. Continued concerns about transportation risks in key shipping routes and rising oil prices driven by energy supply worries have also heightened investor vigilance regarding potential inflation risks. In this environment, the US dollar, as one of the world's major safe-haven assets, typically attracts some capital inflows. Therefore, even with declining expectations for US interest rates, the dollar has not experienced a sustained and significant drop. However, the dollar's policy interest rate advantage is weakening. The latest US economic data signals a slowdown in growth momentum, with July retail sales declining for the first time in nine months, following an unexpected weakness in the US job market, while inflation data remained generally moderate. These factors have collectively reduced market expectations for further tightening by the Federal Reserve in the short term. Market bets on a rate hike at the Fed's September meeting have clearly decreased. Market estimates indicate that the probability of a September rate hike is currently around 35%, down from approximately 47% a month ago. This shift in market pricing suggests that investors are beginning to believe that the Fed does not need to further raise policy rates given the slowing economic growth and relatively manageable inflationary pressures. However, there is not complete consensus within the Fed regarding interest rate policy. The previous policy meeting kept interest rates unchanged, but three officials favored a rate hike, indicating that significant disagreements remain within the policymaking body. Therefore, the upcoming meeting minutes are crucial for the dollar's trajectory. If the minutes show that most officials remain concerned about inflation and believe a prolonged period of restrictive policy is necessary, the dollar may gain new upward momentum. If the minutes emphasize the weakness in the job market and economic growth risks, it could further strengthen market bets on future policy easing. Meanwhile, changes in the US Treasury yield curve are also worth noting. Recently, long-term US bond yields have risen due to inflation concerns, while short-term interest rates have changed relatively little, leading to a further steepening of the yield curve. For the dollar, this structure provides some short-term support because higher long-term financing costs mean that dollar assets can still offer relatively high yield compensation. However, it's important to note that rising long-term yields do not necessarily mean a sustained dollar strength. If the rise in long-term yields is mainly due to fiscal financing pressures and inflation risks, rather than a renewed market bet on Fed rate hikes, then the dollar's interest rate support may be limited. In other words, whether the dollar can break through its current range depends on whether the driving factors behind rising US Treasury yields change. Oil prices are also a significant variable in the dollar's future trajectory. Rising energy prices, on the one hand, increase inflation expectations, keeping the Federal Reserve cautious and thus supporting the dollar; on the other hand, if high energy costs continue to suppress household consumption and business activity, it could exacerbate market concerns about a slowdown in the US economy and reinforcing expectations of further easing. Therefore, oil prices and the dollar currently exhibit a complex two-way relationship. From a global market perspective, the dollar still possesses strong safe-haven characteristics. As long as risks to key shipping routes do not significantly ease, investors may continue to hold dollars to hedge against global supply and geopolitical risks. However, if market risk sentiment improves significantly, and the Fed meeting minutes further confirm a shift towards easing policy, then the dollar's safe-haven support may gradually weaken, and the dollar index will face renewed downward pressure. From a daily chart perspective, the dollar index is currently trading around 99.60, remaining in a relatively weak position. The index is below the 9-day and 50-day exponential moving averages, indicating that short-term upward pressure remains significant. The 14-day RSI is approximately 38.94, approaching oversold territory, but no obvious extreme oversold signals have yet appeared. Therefore, the current indication is more likely to suggest continued bearish pressure rather than confirmation that the downtrend has ended. The first resistance level to watch is the 9-day moving average around 99.77. A decisive break above this level could see the US dollar index test the 50-day moving average around 100.19. A sustained hold above 100.19 would significantly improve the short-term technical structure and potentially challenge the key resistance level around 101.80. On the downside, the first support level to watch is 97.62. A break below this level could see the index fall further to 96.49, or even test the 95.56 area. Looking at the 4-hour chart, the US dollar index has recently shown a weak recovery structure after low-level consolidation, with the 99.60 level being a key battleground for both bulls and bears. A break above 99.77 and a sustained hold could open up further upside potential; a break above 100.19 would confirm a strengthening short-term rebound trend. Conversely, if the price falls back below 99.00 and further below 97.62, the bears could regain control. Since the RSI is still in a weak zone, a short-term rebound still requires the support of trading momentum. Investors should pay close attention to the synchronized reaction of yields and the US dollar after the release of the Fed meeting minutes. Editor's Summary: The US dollar index is currently at a critical juncture, oscillating between safe-haven demand and expectations of Federal Reserve policy. Geopolitical risks, rising oil prices, and higher US long-term yields are providing short-term support for the dollar; however, weak US retail sales, employment, and inflation data continue to erode market expectations for a September rate hike. In the short term, 99.77 and 100.19 are the most significant resistance levels during the dollar index's rebound, while 97.62 is a key downside defense line. Subsequent releases of the Fed meeting minutes, US economic data, US Treasury yields, and global risk sentiment will determine whether the dollar can break out of its current consolidation pattern and establish a new trend.