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The situation in the Middle East has pushed up oil prices and put downward pressure on precious metals. Silver is fluctuating around $63, awaiting stabilization.

2026-08-19 17:03:10

Spot silver continued its decline in Asian trading on Wednesday, fluctuating around the $63 mark, marking its second consecutive day of losses. Silver had previously touched around $66.50 on Tuesday but quickly retreated, indicating that profit-taking at higher levels and risk aversion were beginning to dominate. 图片点击可在新窗口打开查看 One of the core factors putting pressure on precious metals recently is the repricing of global market expectations regarding energy supply risks. The ongoing tensions between the US and Iran, with no new substantive progress in negotiations following the expiration of the relevant understanding, coupled with continued significant restrictions on commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, have kept investors focused on the stability of the global crude oil supply chain. The sustained high oil prices have further increased the complexity of the precious metals market. Brent crude has recently risen to around $90, accumulating a gain of approximately 6% over the past three trading days. The rapid rise in energy prices could reignite global inflation expectations, creating renewed doubts about the scope for interest rate cuts by major central banks, thereby increasing pressure on real interest rates and bond yields. For silver, which does not generate interest income, rising real interest rates typically mean higher holding costs, thus weakening its investment appeal. Furthermore, if geopolitical risks worsen further, the demand for the US dollar as a safe haven may increase, further pressuring silver, a dollar-denominated precious metal. However, silver's industrial attributes mean its fundamentals are not entirely equivalent to gold's. Silver possesses both the financial attributes of a precious metal and is closely related to demand from manufacturing, electronics, and energy transition sectors. Therefore, if global economic activity remains resilient, industrial demand may still provide some support for silver. The current market needs to assess whether inflationary pressures from geopolitical risks will outweigh the supporting effect of improved industrial demand. From a market sentiment perspective, silver has already accumulated significant gains after its previous rapid rise, and the recent simultaneous increase in oil prices and bond yields has led some investors to take profits. Silver's pullback from around $66.50 to around $63 indicates a clear cooling of the bullish momentum in the short term. Meanwhile, the market still needs to pay attention to the interest rate policies of major central banks. If US inflation continues to cool, while employment and consumption data further weaken, the Fed's policy expectations may shift back to easing, putting pressure on the dollar and US Treasury yields, which would be beneficial for silver. Conversely, if energy prices continue to rise and inflation concerns are reinvigorated, silver may still face significant pressure in the short term. The key for the market now is whether the support around $62.30 can be effectively held. If buying support is found in this area, silver may experience a technical rebound; if the price breaks below this level, the previous upward structure may weaken further, and the market will seek lower support areas. From a daily chart perspective, silver has recently experienced a significant pullback from its highs, with prices falling from around $66.50 to the $63 level, indicating increased short-term bearish pressure. $62.30 is a crucial support/resistance level, representing the lower edge of the previous trading range and a former resistance zone. If the daily chart can hold above $62.30, a short-term rebound is still possible. A decisive break below $62.30 would target the August 6th low around $60.90. A breach of $60.90 could see silver further declines towards the late July/early August lows around $56. These areas will be important indicators of whether the medium-term uptrend has been broken. On the upside, the first resistance level to watch is around $67.00, corresponding to the highs of June 22nd and August 12th. A break above $67 could shift market sentiment back to positive, potentially leading to a test of the $71.55-$71.85 area. This area is close to both the previous June high and the 200-day moving average, making it a strong medium-term resistance zone. From a 4-hour chart perspective, silver's short-term technical structure is clearly bearish. The 4-hour RSI has fallen back to around 35, indicating increasing bearish momentum and approaching oversold territory; the MACD continues to operate in negative territory, suggesting that short-term downward momentum has not yet fully dissipated. Therefore, before recovering $62.30, any rebound is more likely to be seen as a technical correction. If $62.30 is effectively breached, $60.90 will become the next key target; if the price recovers above $62.30, it may first rebound towards the $66.00-$67.00 area. 图片点击可在新窗口打开查看 Editor's Summary: Silver is currently facing multiple pressures from rising oil prices, increasing inflation expectations, safe-haven demand for the US dollar, and profit-taking at higher levels, resulting in a clearly weakening short-term trend. $62.30 is the most critical technical support level; a break below this level could lead to a further test of $60.90. If the bulls reclaim $67, the short-term bearish structure will be significantly alleviated. Whether silver can stop falling in the future depends crucially on changes in geopolitical risks, oil prices, US Treasury yields, and expectations regarding Federal Reserve policy.
Risk Warning and Disclaimer
The market involves risk, and trading may not be suitable for all investors. This article is for reference only and does not constitute personal investment advice, nor does it take into account certain users’ specific investment objectives, financial situation, or other needs. Any investment decisions made based on this information are at your own risk.

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