Gold rose during the early U.S. trading session on Wednesday (August 19), while silver was largely unchanged. A weaker dollar provided support for precious metals, but rising U.S. Treasury yields and oil prices dampened market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut. At the time of writing, spot gold was trading around $4,474.72 per ounce, up 3.23% on the day; spot silver was at $65.322, up slightly by 3.14% on the day. The market is currently divided between bulls and bears. On the one hand, US economic data is weakening, while on the other hand, long-term US Treasury yields remain high. Last week, July retail sales data declined, core CPI rose 2.5% year-on-year in July, PPI remained flat overall, and the University of Michigan consumer confidence index fell, reducing market expectations for another Fed rate hike in September. However, Monday's New York Empire State Manufacturing Survey showed that the business climate index rose to 20.6 and the prices paid index climbed to 58.6, demonstrating economic resilience. Currently, market pricing indicates about a two-thirds probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged in September, and about a one-third probability of a rate hike; the 10-year US Treasury yield is hovering around 4.7%, and the US dollar index has weakened to around 99.36. Traders are focusing on the release of the Fed's July meeting minutes at 2 PM ET, followed by Thursday's initial jobless claims data, the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index, and Friday's preliminary manufacturing PMI. The Strait of Hormuz remains a key geopolitical variable affecting oil prices, inflation expectations, and safe-haven buying. The US stated that shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remains open, while Iran claims it is closed to shipping; no talks are currently scheduled between the US and Iran. Oman and Iran are negotiating maritime arrangements, but this has been opposed by the US; a ship was attacked with ammunition near Oman, resulting in crew injuries and fatalities, and regional shipping continues to be restricted. Brent crude is around $91.50 per barrel, and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude is close to $85, with the market pricing in an inflation risk premium. Gold is currently experiencing a clear tug-of-war between bulls and bears: heightened geopolitical risks and a weaker dollar are boosting safe-haven buying; however, higher oil prices and rising yields are limiting gold's upside potential. Overnight, global stock markets generally weakened: the South Korean KOSPI fell 5.7%, the Nikkei fell 3.2%, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 2.2%, and the Hang Seng Index was essentially flat. US stock index futures saw limited movement, with the S&P 500 flat, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising 0.1%, and the New York Composite Index falling 0.1%, with artificial intelligence-related sectors under pressure. In external markets, WTI crude oil on the New York Mercantile Exchange strengthened, trading around $84.99 per barrel; Brent crude oil was around $91.91 per barrel. The benchmark 10-year US Treasury yield remained around 4.7%, and the US dollar index weakened. Gold technical analysis... (Spot Gold Daily Chart Source: FX678) The next upside target for spot gold bulls is to push the price back above the $4446.00 resistance level; a successful break above this level would target $4595.00, followed by $4778.00. The short-term downside target for bears is a break below $4320.00, followed by $4228.00, and then $4106.00. First resistance level: $4446.00, then $4595.00; first support level: $4320.00, then $4228.00. Silver Technical Analysis The next upside target for spot silver bulls is to push the price back above $62.75; a break above this level would target $64.20, then $66.55. The downside target for bears is a break below $61.55, followed by $60.39, and then $59.00. The first resistance level is $62.75, followed by $64.20; the first support level is $61.55, followed by $60.39.