Gold and silver prices rose in early U.S. trading on Monday (August 24). Despite persistently high U.S. Treasury yields, a weaker dollar, demand for hedging against fiscal risks, and ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Strait of Hormuz continued to attract buying. Spot gold traded around $4,675.48 per ounce, up 1.54% on the day; spot silver was at $69.173, up 0.30% on the day. The core contradiction in current market pricing lies in the fact that while recent US inflation data has cooled somewhat, economic activity indicators remain strong. Last week's S&P Global Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for August hit a more than four-year high, with the services PMI at 56.8 and the manufacturing PMI at 53.2. Meanwhile, previously released CPI, PPI, retail sales, and consumer confidence data have led the market to widely expect the Federal Reserve to maintain interest rates unchanged in September. The 10-year US Treasury yield is hovering around 4.7%, and the 30-year US Treasury yield is close to 5.3%, with this high-yield environment putting downward pressure on non-interest-bearing assets like gold. The market will face several key data tests ahead: on Wednesday at 8:30 AM ET, the July PCE price index, durable goods orders, and the second revised Q2 GDP figure will be released; on Thursday at 8:30 AM, the weekly initial jobless claims data will be released; and on Friday at 10:00 AM, Federal Reserve official Kevin Warsh will speak at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium. Following last week's price breakout, gold and silver have become standout performers across asset markets. Gold has stabilized above its previous target of $4,595 and is currently testing the resistance level of $4,661. Silver, after briefly rising above $70 last week, is currently consolidating below $69.90. This round of price increases is not solely driven by declining yields: while long-term US Treasury yields remain high, a weakening dollar, market concerns stemming from the US Treasury's bond buyback program, fiscal risk hedging, and geopolitical safe-haven buying continue to offset the negative holding costs associated with high interest rates. The Strait of Hormuz remains the most significant geopolitical variable influencing oil prices, inflation expectations, and safe-haven demand for precious metals. US-Iran negotiations have stalled, and the US is preparing a new round of sanctions to pressure Iran; a senior Iranian security official warned that any country cooperating with new US economic sanctions would be considered an act of war. Oil prices retreated somewhat on Monday as the market weighed the pressure from sanctions and the uncertainty of when tankers will be able to freely sail out of the Persian Gulf again; Brent crude was close to $91.06 per barrel, and WTI crude was around $85.18. The current environment for gold is a mix of bullish and bearish factors: Gulf shipping risks and a weaker dollar boosted safe-haven buying, but rising oil prices and persistently high long-term US Treasury yields limited the upside potential for bets on Fed easing. Global stock markets were weak before the US market opened. US stock index futures fell slightly, dragged down by bond market pressures and weakness in AI-related stocks in the technology sector, as investors awaited the Jackson Hole central bank symposium later this week. In Asian markets, the Nikkei, Hang Seng, and Shanghai Composite indices all rose slightly by 0.1%. European stock markets were mixed in early trading, generally weak. Other major overseas markets: New York WTI crude oil prices fell, trading around $85.18 per barrel; Brent crude was around $91.06 per barrel. The benchmark 10-year US Treasury yield remained around 4.7%, and the US dollar index weakened. Technical Analysis Gold bulls' next upside target: to push gold prices above the $4661.00 resistance level; a successful break above this level would target $4729.00, then $4794.00. Bears' short-term downside target: a break below $4567.00; further declines would target $4508.00 and $4448.00. First resistance level: $4661.00, then $4729.00; first support level: $4567.00, then $4508.00. Spot silver bulls' next upside target: to push silver prices above $69.90; a break above this level would target $71.03, then $72.39. Bears' downside target: a break below $68.39; deeper downside targets are $66.54 and $64.19. The first resistance level is $69.90, followed by $71.03; the first support level is $68.39, followed by $66.54.