International oil prices experienced some profit-taking after a continuous rise, but supply-side risks have not subsided significantly. On Monday, US Treasury Secretary Bessenter announced an expansion of sanctions targeting Iran's economic network, clarifying that the measures would not stop at what was announced that day. Bessenter also stated that the US expects to announce sanctions against a large financial institution before the end of the week, but did not disclose the specific institution's name. The market has therefore begun to reassess the potential impact of the sanctions on Iranian crude oil exports, financial settlements, and regional energy transportation. The market significance of this action is not limited to Iran itself. The US Treasury's expansion of secondary sanctions means that third-party institutions maintaining economic ties with Iran may also face higher financial risks. When asked whether major Asian banks that finance Iranian oil imports might be targeted, Bessenter did not directly name any, but emphasized that no institution is above US sanctions. This has broadened market focus from "whether Iranian crude oil supply will decline" to "whether major buyers and financial institutions will adjust their settlement and procurement behavior." From an energy market perspective, the true impact of the sanctions depends on the enforcement力度 and the response of Iran's major economic partners. If regional financial institutions, refiners, and shipping companies proactively reduce their exposure to Iran, Iranian crude oil exports may face greater discounts and transportation obstacles. If some market participants continue to seek alternative settlement and transportation channels, the impact of sanctions on actual supply may be weaker than initially anticipated. Therefore, the market is currently trading not only on existing supply losses but also on the risk premium of further tightening of the supply chain in the future. This risk has already been reflected in recent oil price movements. WTI crude oil had risen for several consecutive trading days, once approaching $86, while Brent crude oil rose above $90. Monday's price decline was mainly due to profit-taking by investors and market anticipation of details regarding a new round of sanctions, rather than a complete disappearance of supply risks. Latest market data shows that Brent crude oil fell back to around $93 on Monday, while WTI fell back to around $85. More importantly, the rise in oil prices is gradually evolving from a purely energy market issue into a macroeconomic asset pricing issue. Morgan Stanley strategist Michael Wilson believes that if oil prices continue to rise, it could push bond yields higher and increase the difficulty for the Federal Reserve in addressing inflationary pressures. The firm has already raised its Brent crude oil price forecast for the fourth quarter of this year to $100 per barrel. Following this logic, if oil prices break through $100 again, the market may once again face a combination of rising energy-driven inflation, higher bond yields, and tighter financial conditions. The impact of oil prices on the bond market is particularly noteworthy. High oil prices will first raise energy costs for consumers and businesses, thus affecting inflation expectations. If investors lose confidence in a decline in inflation, long-term Treasury yields may rise again. At the same time, higher financing costs will suppress corporate investment and household consumption, creating typical stagflationary pressures. Therefore, every $10 increase in oil prices will not only increase profits in the energy sector, but may also create a broader financial market shock through inflation expectations, bond yields, and risk asset valuations. This is one of the reasons why Goldman Sachs' strategy team placed oil prices among the top important market variables this week. Currently, the market faces multiple factors simultaneously, including US fiscal pressure, technology stock valuation adjustments, and changes in Federal Reserve policy expectations, but energy prices have a strong macroeconomic transmission capacity. If crude oil prices continue to rise, the market may repric the US inflation path, thereby affecting US Treasury and stock valuations. Conversely, if oil prices fall significantly, it can alleviate inflation expectations, improve consumers' actual purchasing power, and to some extent lower long-term yields. Looking at the performance of risk assets, the recent pressure on technology stocks has also increased the market's sensitivity to rising oil prices. The Nasdaq has underperformed the broader market, and there has been significant position adjustment in artificial intelligence-related assets. Nvidia's earnings report is another important event this week, but its impact is more concentrated on the valuation of the technology sector and growth stocks, while oil prices may simultaneously affect the bond, stock, foreign exchange, and commodity markets. If energy prices continue to rise, the market may shift from a simple growth and technology investment logic to a macro trading logic of "inflation-yield-valuation." Another key variable this week is the Federal Reserve's policy expectations. The US Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE) is about to be released, and the market will use the inflation data to judge whether rising energy prices are spreading to the core price system. If the PCE continues to show strong inflation stickiness, the Fed's future policy space may be limited; if the inflation data is significantly lower than expected, the short-term impact of rising oil prices may be temporarily absorbed by the market. In addition, Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh will speak at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, and the market will focus on signals regarding inflation targets, interest rate policy, and financial stability. If oil prices have already risen significantly, and the Fed simultaneously releases hawkish information, then US real interest rates and the dollar may be supported, while risk assets may face greater pressure. Conversely, if the Fed pays more attention to economic growth risks, the impact of high oil prices on policy expectations may be weakened. The supply side is also not to be ignored. The market currently anticipates a slower-than-expected recovery in Middle Eastern crude oil supply, meaning that even without a significant decline in Iranian exports, a slow recovery in regional supply could sustain the market's risk premium. If sanctions further impact Iranian crude oil transportation, insurance, financing, or refining, global supply could tighten further. Recent oil prices have corrected after a continuous rise, but as long as supply risks are not substantially eliminated, WTI is likely to find strong buying support around $82. From a daily chart perspective, WTI crude oil is currently in a high-level consolidation pattern. Previous gains pushed prices back above key medium-term moving averages, but significant resistance exists around $88. While prices have retreated somewhat, the bullish daily chart structure remains intact. $82 is currently the most important daily support level. If prices can continue to trade above $82, the market remains in a strong range-bound pattern; a break above $88 could open up further upside potential towards $90 and even $92. Conversely, if $82 is breached, the short-term bullish structure will weaken significantly, and support levels around $80 and $78 should be monitored. From a 4-hour chart perspective, WTI crude oil prices have entered a period of consolidation after a continuous upward trend, with short-term momentum cooling somewhat, but a clear reversal structure has not yet formed. Currently, the key focus is on the struggle around $85. If oil prices regain a foothold above $85 and break through $86, short-term bulls may retest $88; if the upward push fails and falls below $83, a pullback to $82 is possible. If short-term momentum indicators such as the MACD regain an upward expansion, it will be beneficial for prices to challenge previous highs; however, if a death cross occurs at a high level accompanied by a price drop below short-term moving averages, further profit-taking should be anticipated. Therefore, $82-$88 remains the most important technical trading range for WTI crude oil. Editor's Summary: The US expansion of sanctions on Iran's economic network has restored a supply risk premium to the crude oil market. However, the recent decline in oil prices indicates that the market is awaiting the actual effects of the sanctions, rather than simply chasing policy expectations. The key factor truly influencing future oil prices lies in whether the sanctions can significantly reduce Iranian crude oil exports and whether there will be further disruptions to regional shipping, financing, and refining systems. From a macro perspective, oil prices have become a crucial variable connecting the energy market and global financial markets. If WTI breaks through $88 and moves further above $90, the market needs to be wary of the cascading effects of high oil prices on inflation expectations, US Treasury yields, and risk asset valuations. If the $82 support level is breached, it means that the current supply risk premium may begin to recede. In the short term, oil prices remain in a phase where bulls dominate but upward pressure is significant. Details of the sanctions, US PCE data, the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, and earnings reports from tech giants will collectively determine market risk appetite this week. For crude oil, $82 is a key support level for determining whether the strong structure can be maintained, while $88 is the core breakthrough point for opening up new upward potential. Before supply risks subside, oil price pullbacks should be viewed in terms of the effectiveness of support levels, rather than simply as a trend reversal signal.