Silver prices weakened significantly during Asian trading hours on Tuesday, with spot silver falling to around $68.30 at one point, a daily decline of about 0.8%. This pullback mainly reflects market caution ahead of the release of key US inflation data. Since the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE) is a key inflation indicator monitored by the Federal Reserve, investors are looking to the July data to further determine the future direction of interest rate policy, leading to some adjustment in previously accumulated long positions in silver. The market currently expects the US core PCE to rise by about 0.24% month-on-month in July, the overall PCE to rise by about 0.15% month-on-month, and the core PCE year-on-year growth rate to remain around 3.4%. If the final data is close to expectations, it means that US inflation is still relatively under control but has not yet fully fallen back to the target level. For silver, this result will neither have a significant negative impact nor be enough to immediately drive the market to significantly increase its expectations for interest rate hikes; silver may therefore maintain a high level of fluctuation. At the same time, US consumption growth is showing some signs of cooling. Market institutions expect the month-on-month increase in consumer spending in July to slow to about 0.2%, and the actual consumption growth rate may only be about 0.1%. If both consumption and inflation moderate, the market may further reduce concerns about the Federal Reserve maintaining high interest rates, thereby improving the financial attributes of precious metals. However, silver still faces an important pressure: US real interest rates and Treasury yields. If the PCE unexpectedly exceeds expectations, US long-term Treasury yields may rise again, and expectations for further tightening of policy by the Federal Reserve may also increase. In this context, the holding cost of silver, a non-interest-bearing asset, rises, and short-term funds may continue to choose to take profits. From the perspective of the US dollar, the recent rebound in the dollar also puts downward pressure on silver. The US dollar and silver typically have an inverse relationship; when the dollar strengthens, the cost of dollar-denominated silver increases for non-dollar investors. However, the current rise in the dollar is more driven by safe-haven demand and position adjustments, and has not yet formed a very clear long-term trend. Therefore, the downward pressure on silver still needs to be assessed in conjunction with US interest rate expectations. On the other hand, silver is not simply a precious metal asset; its industrial attributes are also worth noting. Global manufacturing, the photovoltaic industry, and demand related to electronics and new energy have a strong impact on silver. If global economic growth expectations improve, industrial demand can provide silver with additional support that differs from gold; conversely, if economic growth slows significantly, silver may experience greater cyclical pressure than gold. Geopolitical risks also constitute an important variable in the current silver market. Changes in energy supply and regional situations may push up inflation expectations and strengthen market safe-haven demand. If risk events escalate further, gold typically sees the first inflow of safe-haven funds, while silver may subsequently be driven by overall precious metal fund flows. Therefore, short-term silver price movements still require observation of the interplay between gold, the US dollar, and crude oil. Another important risk event this week is the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium, where Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh's speech will be closely watched by the market. Whether Warsh emphasizes upside risks to inflation and provides further insights into the future path of interest rates could influence US Treasury yields and the dollar's performance. If his policy stance is hawkish, silver may further test lower support levels; if the tone is dovish, the current pullback could present an opportunity for bulls to reposition. From a daily technical perspective, although silver has experienced a significant pullback, it still maintains an overall bullish structure. Currently priced at approximately $67.87, it remains clearly above the 20-day exponential moving average of $64.64, indicating that the short-to-medium-term upward trend has not been broken. The RSI is approximately 61.7, still in a relatively strong zone, suggesting that bullish momentum has weakened but has not yet shifted to bearish dominance. The area around $64.64 is currently the most important daily support level. As long as the price continues to trade above this level, this pullback is more likely to be seen as a technical correction within an uptrend. On the upside, the psychological level of $70 and the area around the high of August 21 form the first major resistance. If silver can break through $70 again and establish a firm foothold, it may challenge the previous high near $71.33; after a further breakout, the market will focus on the higher resistance area near $77. From the 4-hour chart, silver has already experienced a significant short-term pullback, and the area around $67.00 can be considered the current short-term observation zone. If the price can find support in this area and rise back above $68.50, short-term buying may gradually recover; if it falls below $67, the correction may extend further, approaching the $65 area. In terms of technical momentum, it is important to observe whether the RSI can recover upwards and whether the MACD bearish momentum begins to contract. If the price pulls back but the momentum indicators do not deteriorate simultaneously, there is still a possibility of retesting $70. Editor's Summary: The core contradiction for silver currently lies in the fact that while fundamentals still support demand from precious metals and industrial sectors, uncertainties surrounding US interest rates, the US dollar, and Treasury yields limit further short-term upside potential. Tuesday's pullback reflects more of a proactive risk-averse move before the PCE data release than a reversal of the medium-term trend for silver. $64.64 is a key support level for assessing the integrity of the current bullish structure in silver, while $70 represents a significant resistance level for reopening upward potential in the short term. If the PCE data meets or falls short of expectations, and the Fed's policy signals are dovish, silver is expected to retest the $70 and $71.33 areas after a pullback. Conversely, if inflation significantly exceeds expectations and pushes up US Treasury yields, silver may further adjust towards $64.64 or even lower. Overall, silver has entered a data-driven phase in the short term, and the risk of chasing rallies is significantly higher than before. Close observation of the correlation between PCE, the US dollar index, and US Treasury yields is crucial; a judgment on whether the bulls have regained dominance should be made only after key support levels are confirmed.