US economic data and Nvidia's earnings report released mixed signals; geopolitical risks continued to loom, and market risk appetite remained low; the dollar's weekly gains were held, awaiting the Jackson Hole symposium and Warsh's speech; the yen remained under pressure, with investors awaiting the release of Tokyo's CPI inflation data. Investors Interpret US Data and Nvidia Earnings Report While Wednesday's key events had the potential to shake up the market, they did not trigger significant asset price volatility. July's PCE inflation failed to show a sufficiently significant decline, making it difficult to further reduce the already low probability of a Fed rate hike in September; meanwhile, personal consumption expenditure slowed further, and the final Q2 GDP figure was largely in line with market expectations. More noteworthy was Nvidia's earnings per share and revenue both exceeding market expectations. However, due to previously high earnings expectations coupled with concerns about its adjusted gross margin in Q3, the stock price initially fell after the earnings release, but this decline did not last. Unexpectedly, Nvidia management provided clear earnings guidance for the next fiscal year, particularly a 70% revenue growth target for fiscal year 2028, which reversed market sentiment, and the stock has turned positive at the time of writing. Although investors are eager for detailed future earnings guidance, a hint of anxiety can be gleaned from Nvidia management's eagerness to reassure the market. Risk Appetite Weak While risk appetite improved slightly overnight, bullish sentiment remained weak, and the Nasdaq 100 lacked momentum, failing to challenge its mid-August highs. Multiple unresolved issues prevented investors from aggressively buying risk assets. Specifically, the Middle East situation remains a major concern; negotiations between Oman and Iran are ongoing but have yet to yield substantial results. Oil prices stabilized, with West Texas Intermediate crude holding above $82, down about 8% from last week's high. Meanwhile, the meeting between US officials and Russian President Putin in Moscow failed to break the deadlock; US media reported that the conflict might escalate again. This was somewhat unexpected, as both sides typically struggle to achieve substantial gains during the winter months, but oil market investors are clearly paying close attention to such news. Dollar Holds Weekly Gains The US dollar remained strong overall this week, recording modest gains in most major currency pairs; the Australian dollar was an exception, with several investment institutions turning hawkish, predicting another interest rate hike by the Reserve Bank of Australia in 2026. With few major US economic data releases today and the 7-year Treasury auction unlikely to cause significant market volatility, forex traders are turning their attention to Friday's Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Symposium. The market is speculating whether Federal Reserve Chairman Warsh will address inflation and monetary policy, or downplay the policy signals from the meeting. Intriguingly, Kansas City Fed President Schmid, the host of the Jackson Hole symposium, will speak today. The market expects him to maintain his consistently hawkish stance; this statement, coming just hours after Warsh's Jackson Hole speech, may put Warsh in a slightly awkward position. However, Schmid has no voting rights this year or in 2027. The euro has trended lower against the dollar this week, but has traded within a very narrow range. Key support lies at the 200-day simple moving average at 1.1628, while 1.1693 currently constitutes upward resistance. The minutes of the July 23rd ECB meeting will be released today; unless there are extremely rare major surprises, market expectations for a September rate hike will remain solidified. USD/JPY Stabilizes and Rebounds The USD/JPY pair has been rising throughout the week, but has yet to reach last week's high. Following yesterday's unexpected rise in the July corporate services price index, the August Tokyo CPI data will be released tomorrow, the next key indicator. If core inflation falls to 1.7% as expected, it will negatively impact the likelihood of a September rate hike by the Bank of Japan. Overnight, BOJ Deputy Governor Himo delivered a hawkish speech, emphasizing the need for a "timely rate hike" to avoid falling behind the inflation curve, but did not give a clear signal that action would be taken in September. Traders bullish on the yen did not react much to Himo's remarks; they had already focused on one thing: BOJ Governor Ueda will be absent from the Jackson Hole symposium and will not send any deputy governors, only delegating to the staunchly hawkish board member Tamura. The market widely speculates that Governor Ueda may attend the G20 finance ministers and central bank governors meeting in North Carolina, USA, and may meet privately with US officials to discuss how to boost the yen. Meanwhile, the market also believes that the Bank of Japan is getting closer to raising interest rates in September, with the market currently giving this probability of 65%; and Ueda's decision not to release any signals in Jackson Hole may be partly due to the fact that the interest rate hike has not yet been approved by Japanese Prime Minister Takaichi.