On Thursday (August 27), spot silver accelerated its gains, trading around $69.50, a single-day increase of 1.96%. This precious white metal is steadily approaching the upper limit of its price trading range this week, with the market's focus shifting entirely to the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Symposium. As the most important annual global macroeconomic policy event, speeches by officials here often directly rewrite the short-term trading logic of commodities, foreign exchange, and stocks, prompting funds to adjust their positions in advance to mitigate the risks of sudden policy changes. The most crucial driving event in the market right now is Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh's public speech scheduled for Friday. Market participants will carefully analyze the speech to determine how the Fed assesses persistent inflationary pressures and how the current inflation situation will affect future interest rate trends. Since taking office, Warsh has rarely provided clear forward guidance on policy, a style that further amplifies the uncertainty surrounding this speech, making traders hesitant to make large-scale bets on one-sided market movements in advance. At the Fed's monetary policy meeting in July, Warsh did not provide specific guidance on the Fed's next steps, only reiterating the Fed's commitment to bringing inflation back to its 2% target level. If he continues to deliver a hawkish stance on Friday, it will reinforce market expectations of "high interest rates lasting longer"; silver, being a non-interest-bearing asset, will have significantly higher holding costs in a high-interest-rate environment, which is unfavorable for the continuation of a bullish trend. Recent US economic data continues to confirm the stickiness of inflationary pressures. The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index released on Wednesday showed that inflation remains above the Fed's target, although the latest price indicators have not yet shown signs of a new round of sharp acceleration. According to data from the CME FedWatch Tool, current market pricing indicates a roughly 62% probability that the Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates unchanged in September. This probability is near a key dividing line between bullish and bearish sentiment, meaning there is significant divergence in market expectations; even a slight shift in hawkish or dovish rhetoric can quickly reverse interest rate futures pricing. Several Fed officials have also expressed caution regarding inflation risks. Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammark stated on Thursday that policy action should be taken now in the face of persistent inflation; she believes current monetary policy is not sufficiently constraining the US economy, and warned that American households may lose confidence in the Fed's ability to reduce inflation to its 2% target. Meanwhile, Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid pointed out that the negative impact of the energy shock is gradually permeating the overall economy, reiterating the need to push inflation back to the target. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsby stated that the biggest short-term risk remains that inflation is not yet fully under control. The collective expression of concern about inflation by these three regional Fed presidents indicates that a considerable number of hawkish voices still exist within the Fed, and the conditions for a policy shift towards easing have not yet been fully met. Once investors lower their expectations for monetary easing, the aforementioned officials' statements will support the US dollar and US Treasury yields. A stronger dollar and higher interest rates often suppress silver prices—because this increases the opportunity cost of holding this type of non-interest-bearing asset, prompting institutional funds to shift to assets that can generate stable interest income, such as US Treasuries. However, geopolitical uncertainties in the Middle East continue to provide some support for precious metals. Although Iran and Oman have begun negotiations, the situation in the Strait of Hormuz remains highly tense. Approximately one-fifth of global oil trade passes through this crucial waterway, and a deterioration in the situation could directly trigger sharp fluctuations in the energy market. Concerns about energy supply disruptions are simultaneously driving safe-haven buying and inflation risk expectations. With multiple factors intertwined, silver found some bottom support on Thursday, but Warsh's speech will determine whether this precious metal can successfully break through the $70 mark and continue to expand upwards.