On Monday (August 31, Beijing time) in early Asian trading, spot gold was trading around $4,464 per ounce. Although gold prices initially touched a near two-week low after Federal Reserve Chairman Warsh's hawkish remarks on Friday, renewed geopolitical tensions due to the US attack on a southern Iranian island pushed prices back up. US crude oil rose nearly 2%, trading around $84.82 per barrel. The US attack on Iran again dispelled market expectations of easing tensions. Meanwhile, the Iranian Revolutionary Guard warned that no aggression could weaken its control over the Strait of Hormuz and launched ballistic missiles at US military bases in Jordan.

Key Focus Today

stock market

U.S. stocks closed lower on Friday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average edged down 0.02% to 53,559.99, the S&P 500 fell 0.25% to 7,711.76, and the Nasdaq Composite declined 0.52% to 26,402.42. This decline was primarily driven by Federal Reserve Chairman Warsh's reaffirmation of a hawkish stance on combating inflation at the Jackson Hole symposium. He stated that if there is a lack of confidence in a return to the 2% inflation target, "there is still more work to be done," and that recent inflation data has not shown a trend change. This fueled traders' bets on a September rate hike, with market expectations for a rate hike and maintaining the current rate almost evenly split. Overall, the three major indices still recorded gains last week: the S&P 500 rose 0.49%, the Nasdaq rose 0.85%, and the Dow Jones rose 0.53%. In individual stocks, PayPal plunged 12.7% after reports that a consortium comprised of Advent and Stripe had abandoned its acquisition plans, while Gap surged nearly 13% after appointing a new CEO and raising its annual profit forecast. Nvidia gave back the previous day's gains, falling 4.6%, and Marvell Technology plummeted 10.3% due to concerns about AI chip revenue recognition. Meanwhile, large-cap stocks like Alphabet and Apple rose, making the communications services sector the biggest support for the S&P 500. On the economic data front, the final reading of the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index was 51.7, slightly higher than expected. Trading was active, with approximately 15.68 billion shares traded on U.S. exchanges, close to the 20-day average of 15.8 billion shares. The number of declining stocks significantly outnumbered the advancing stocks.

Gold Market

Gold prices reversed earlier gains on Friday, with spot gold falling more than 3% to close at $4,456.13 per ounce, after hitting a new low since August 20 at $4,445.34 per ounce during the session; it fell a cumulative 3.21% last week, influenced by Federal Reserve Chairman Warsh's hawkish remarks at the Jackson Hole conference that hinted at possible further interest rate hikes. Warsh stated that if there is no certainty that inflation will return to the 2% target, "there is still work to be done," which raised traders' bets on a September rate hike from 36% pre-meeting to 58%, and the probability of a December rate hike to 89%. Meanwhile, the dollar index strengthened to a more than one-week high, further pressuring gold, a non-interest-bearing asset. In other precious metals, spot silver fell 4.13% to $66.37 per ounce, platinum dipped slightly by 0.6%, while palladium bucked the trend, rising 5.3% to $1422.25. On the physical demand side, the discount on gold in India widened significantly due to market expectations that the government might withdraw recently raised import tariffs, leading to a sharp contraction in demand.

oil market

Oil prices closed lower on Friday, with a significant weekly decline. Brent crude fell nearly 6% last week to settle at $88.24 a barrel, while WTI crude fell 3.69% to settle at $83.44 a barrel, marking its second consecutive week of weakness. The decline was attributed to a combination of factors, including Federal Reserve Chairman Warsh's hints that interest rates might be raised later this year to curb inflation, and market rumors that the US and Iran might reach an agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. While Ukraine's attack on Russian refineries provided some support to the refined oil market, traders were more focused on geopolitical developments. The war between the US and Israel and Iran has lasted six months. Although oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz have rebounded from their March lows, only seven commodity ships passed through last Thursday, down from 17 the previous day and the 10-day average. Meanwhile, with Qatar mediating, Iran is drafting a list of conditions for resuming navigation. Furthermore, Trump administration officials are discussing an agreement to secure long-term access to some of Venezuela's crude oil reserves, while Venezuela is reportedly considering leaving OPEC. Goldman Sachs estimates that total Gulf exports remain 7 to 8 million barrels per day lower than pre-war levels.

Foreign exchange market

The dollar index surged 0.56% on Friday, its biggest one-day gain since June 17, hitting a more than one-week high of 99.727 during the session. It rose nearly 0.9% last week, its best weekly performance in 10 weeks, influenced by Federal Reserve Chairman Warsh's hawkish remarks at the Jackson Hole conference, suggesting that "there is work to be done" if inflation fails to return to the 2% target and that interest rate hikes may be necessary to ease price pressures. Market bets on a September rate hike jumped to 58% from about 36% before the speech, while the probability of a December rate hike rose to 89%. Major non-US currencies generally came under pressure. The euro fell 0.59% against the dollar to $1.1582, its lowest level since August 19, and fell about 0.8% for the week, ending a four-week winning streak. The dollar rose 0.45% against the yen to 160.20, although Tokyo's core inflation accelerated for the third consecutive month in August, strengthening the case for a rate hike by the Bank of Japan as early as next month. The pound fell 0.47% against the dollar to 1.3528, ending a four-week winning streak; the Canadian dollar fell 0.37% against the dollar to 1.39, falling about 1% for the week, its biggest weekly drop in over two months, dragged down by the breakdown of US-Canada trade negotiations and the imposition of reciprocal tariffs, despite strong rebounding Canadian economic data in the second quarter. The Australian dollar and New Zealand dollar fell 0.49% and 0.67% respectively, with the market still questioning the true impact of Warsh's speech. Some analysts believe that if the Federal Reserve does not take further action, its credibility will be questioned, but the short-term strong trend of the US dollar has been established.

International News

US Attacks Southern Iranian Island According to Iranian media reports, an explosion was heard on Larak Island in Hormozgan Province, southern Iran, on the evening of August 30 local time (early morning of August 31 Beijing time). The Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) issued a statement saying that the attack on Larak Island caused multiple casualties, including civilians, and that "the enemy's aggression against Larak Island will be retaliated against, and the aggressors will be punished." According to Axios, citing a US official, the US military struck two launchers belonging to the IRGC on Larak Island. (CCTV) The IRGC warns: No aggression can weaken control over the Strait of Hormuz; ballistic missiles launched at US military bases in Jordan . The IRGC issued a statement strongly warning against the US airstrike on Iranian military targets on Larak Island. The IRGC emphasized that no enemy aggression or crime can weaken Iran's control over the Strait of Hormuz and warned that "every launch will be met with a stronger response." The Revolutionary Guard also announced that, in response to the US attack on Larak Island, Iran had launched ballistic missiles at two US military bases in Jordan. This action marks a new escalation of direct military confrontation between the US and Iran after weeks of relative calm. The probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike in September has risen to 56.9%, and the probability of at least one rate hike this year has risen to 88.9%. According to CME's "FedWatch": the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged by September is 43.1%, and the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate hike is 56.9%. The probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged by October is 29.3%, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate hike is 52.5%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point rate hike is 18.3%. The probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged until December is 11.1%, while the probability of a rate hike of at least 25 basis points is 88.9% . Warsh issued the strongest signal yet regarding inflation, and the market's bet on a September rate hike rose to 60%. At the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, Fed Chairman Warsh stated that if the Fed cannot be certain that inflation is clearly and rapidly falling back to its 2% target, it "still has work to do," marking his closest acknowledgment to date of a possible rate hike. He emphasized that with a stable labor market, persistently high inflation, and no significant tightening in financial conditions, prices should be the primary concern. The market quickly increased its bets, with interest rate futures showing a September rate hike probability rising from approximately 36% before the speech to approximately 60%. Warsh also explicitly stated that this speech was not forward guidance or a reaction function, and did not reveal a timeline for a rate hike. Warsh pointed out that recent inflation progress has been limited; as of July, the PCE year-on-year growth rate was still 3.7%, with about half of the items showing an annual increase of over 3%, and recent data has not shown significant improvement. The labor market remains stable, economic growth is resilient, business investment is growing rapidly, and there are almost no signs of policy constraints in the credit and loan markets. He mentioned that the Fed's 2% inflation target is "clear and fixed," and that inflation expectations must be "closely monitored," as ensuring it doesn't lose its anchor is the Fed's responsibility. He also stated that the Fed needs "as unfiltered" market signals as possible to formulate appropriate policies, but did not directly comment on the Treasury's intervention in the bond market. The recommendations of the five long-term research working groups established by Warsh will be released in the future and will not affect current policy. His speaking style was clearer and more hawkish than in previous press conferences, which some observers believe reflects a shift in his stance compared to his previous avoidance of hinting at rate hikes due to Trump's expectations of rate cuts. Trump: US Gains "Majority Control" of Over 65 Billion Barrels of Venezuelan Oil Reserves. US President Trump announced on social media on the 28th that the US has reached an agreement with Venezuela, gaining "majority control" of over 65 billion barrels of Venezuela's proven oil reserves. Trump said that through cooperation between the US and Venezuela, and in partnership with private companies, the US gained "majority control" of over 65 billion barrels of Venezuela's proven oil reserves, with US taxpayers not having to bear any costs. Trump stated that the deal "will more than double U.S. oil reserves, significantly increase oil supply, and substantially reduce U.S. gasoline prices for a long time to come." However, Trump did not disclose the specific details of the agreement, and the White House has not yet released an official statement. (Xinhua) Iran's oil revenues are ample, with a 99% budget achievement rate in the first four months and $7.5 billion already allocated . According to Iranian media FarsNews, Iran currently has sufficient oil to sell, enough to meet its budget funding needs, and is not affected by maritime transport restrictions. Data from the Ministry of Petroleum shows that in the first four months of this year, the planned oil revenue achievement rate reached 99%. The Ministry of Petroleum has already allocated $7.5 billion from foreign exchange earnings in these months to the central bank, funds sufficient to cover the government's foreign exchange expenditures up to January next year. The number of billionaires worldwide has reached a record high, fueled by the AI boom. According to a recent report by Fortune magazine, a new report from wealth intelligence firm Altrata shows that the number of billionaires worldwide will reach 3,795 in 2025, a record high. The total wealth of billionaires will increase by 12.8% year-on-year, reaching $15.1 trillion, also a record high. This figure is close to a quarter of the total market capitalization of the S&P 500 index. Among these billionaires, 29 have assets exceeding $50 billion, including Larry Page, Elon Musk, and Jeff Bezos. Specifically, the AI investment boom is the main driver of the billionaires' wealth growth, with many tech billionaires seeing their fortunes increase significantly as their companies' AI businesses expand. Billionaires most tend to allocate their wealth in sports and philanthropy, with 201 individuals owning sports organizations or investing in sports franchises. The report points out that investing in professional sports teams not only demonstrates wealth but also expands one's social network. Investing in philanthropy has become one way for billionaires to use their wealth and social influence to give back to society and drive innovation in certain areas. (CCTV Finance) Trump says he will use Venezuelan oil to replenish the US strategic petroleum reserve Trump said, regarding Venezuelan oil, "One of the things I'm going to do next is use it to replenish the national strategic petroleum reserve. These reserves have been almost depleted due to the incompetence of 'Sleepy Joe' Biden. The 'refilling' process will begin soon, which can be seen as a gift from Venezuela to the American people."

Domestic News

China's First Vehicle-Mounted Mobile Term Factory Arrives China's first vehicle-mounted mobile term factory has been unveiled. Equipped with domestically developed computing power and energy management systems, it more flexibly matches the computing power needs of artificial intelligence while exploring new models of computing-electricity collaboration. This helps to absorb renewable energy and reduces computing power operating costs. The vehicle uses a standardized 40-foot shipping container, employing an integrated electro-computing-cooling system and a storage-computing-network design. The front can be tracted by an electric vehicle, supporting the deployment of nine server racks. It features a fast interface for integrated power and communication, enabling rapid network deployment of multiple vehicles to form a mobile computing power cluster. From on-site connection to commissioning and operation, it takes only 6-8 hours. When renewable energy sources generate low-priced electricity, the computing vehicle can move to a substation closer to renewable energy sources for connection, improving renewable energy absorption and reducing computing power operating costs. Calculations show that using a mobile approach to access computing power reduces overall costs by approximately 25%, enabling the production of more cost-effective terminology services for various downstream scenarios. (CCTV Finance) China's High-End Heavy-Duty Gas Turbines Achieve Independent Control, Accelerated Industrialization and Internationalization Recently, a 50 MW F-class heavy-duty gas turbine independently developed by China was shipped to Kazakhstan. This exported heavy-duty gas turbine is the first F-class heavy-duty gas turbine in China with completely independent intellectual property rights. The export of the complete unit marks a new stage in China's high-end heavy-duty gas turbine industry, moving from technological localization to industrialization and internationalization. Heavy-duty gas turbines are core and key equipment in the high-end equipment manufacturing field and important supporting equipment for new power systems. Compared with traditional thermal power units of the same power, the exported 50 MW F-class heavy-duty gas turbine has significant comprehensive advantages. The entire unit consists of more than 20,000 precision parts, and a single unit can generate more than 70,000 kWh per hour. A single unit can reduce carbon dioxide emissions by more than 500,000 tons per year. It has outstanding advantages in high efficiency and energy saving, low carbon emissions and cleanliness, and flexible start-stop, making it suitable for the construction needs of new power systems. (CCTV News) National Data Bureau: Market Demand for Meta-Based Data Shows Explosive Growth. The 2026 China International Big Data Industry Expo is being held in Guiyang, Guizhou. At the China International Big Data Industry Expo, a representative from the National Bureau of Data Science and Technology stated that the rapid application of large-scale models across various industries is driving a surge in word-based communication usage in China, resulting in explosive market demand. Liu Liehong, Director of the National Bureau of Data Science and Technology, stated at a word-based communication forum that the stronger the model's comprehensive capabilities, the higher the efficiency of word-based production, and the better the logic, accuracy, and quality of the output content. Words provide an important benchmark for the measurement, pricing, transaction, and settlement of AI services. Currently, the word-based communication industry chain has gathered diverse entities such as computing power leasing companies, model manufacturers, data service providers, and professional technical service institutions, and different types of "word-based factories" have evolved in practice. (CCTV News) China Achieves First Two-Way High-Speed Laser Communication Between Earth and the Moon According to the Space Application Engineering and Technology Center of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, China recently achieved a significant breakthrough in its Earth-Moon laser communication experiment, successfully establishing a two-way laser link over a distance of more than 400,000 kilometers between the Earth and the Moon, achieving high-speed two-way laser communication between Earth and the Moon for the first time. This marks China's official entry into Earth-Moon space for space laser communication from near-Earth orbit. (CCTV News)