The pound continued its rebound against the dollar in early Asian trading on Friday, rising to around 1.3530. A shift in Bank of England policy expectations towards a more hawkish stance provided new support for the pound, while the dollar was recently pressured by cooling expectations of a September rate hike by the Federal Reserve, giving the pound a dual boost from the divergence in monetary policy. Bank of England Chief Economist Hugh Peele stated on Thursday that raising interest rates now could reduce the likelihood of having to implement more aggressive tightening measures in the future to control inflation. Peele emphasized that raising rates ahead of schedule does not mean the Bank of England will begin a sustained and aggressive rate hike cycle. The core message of this statement is that the Bank of England is paying closer attention to the potential risk of a second round of inflation transmission. Recent energy price increases have already added to inflationary pressures in the UK. In this environment, if monetary policy reacts too slowly, the further transmission of energy costs to wages, service prices, and business costs could make subsequent inflation control more difficult. Therefore, Peel's preference for earlier action to reduce the magnitude of future policy adjustments is clearly hawkish and has led the market to reassess the Bank of England's policy path in the coming months. Interest rate futures markets show that investors' bets on a Bank of England rate hike this month remain limited, with a 25 basis point probability only slightly above 15%. However, market expectations for subsequent policy action have significantly strengthened, with the probability of a rate hike at the November meeting exceeding 70%. This means that the market is not fully betting on immediate action from the Bank of England, but rather is more inclined to believe that if inflationary pressures persist, the central bank may take more explicit tightening measures in the latter part of autumn. Market focus is therefore gradually shifting to the Bank of England's policy meeting on November 5th. This meeting will also cover the inflation report and economic forecasts, thus providing a more comprehensive framework for policy judgment. Furthermore, the UK government plans to release its Autumn Fiscal Statement on October 28th. The impact of fiscal policy on inflation, economic growth, and UK government bond yields may become an important reference for the central bank's subsequent decisions. Changes in interest rate expectations between the UK and the US also support the pound against the dollar. Recently, the yield spread between UK and US government bonds has shifted in favor of the pound, leading to greater market caution regarding the Bank of England's future policies and a cooling of expectations for a September rate hike by the Federal Reserve. The interest rate spread tilting back towards the UK helps improve the relative attractiveness of the pound. However, there are still important short-term variables for a dollar rebound. The upcoming US August jobs report, particularly the non-farm payroll data, could directly change market expectations regarding the Fed's future policy path. Currently, the market expects US non-farm payrolls to increase by approximately 56,000 in August, with the unemployment rate remaining at 4.1%. If the jobs data is significantly weaker than expected, the market may further reduce the likelihood of a near-term Fed rate hike, putting pressure on the dollar and opening up more upside potential for the pound against the dollar. Conversely, if non-farm payrolls significantly exceed expectations, while the unemployment rate declines or wage growth accelerates again, the market may re-enhance expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain high interest rates or even further tighten policy. This could provide upward momentum for the US dollar, while the pound sterling against the dollar may face renewed pressure. It's important to note that although the US job market has cooled somewhat recently, it hasn't shown any significant signs of spiraling out of control. Low initial jobless claims and a relatively stable unemployment rate continue to give Federal Reserve officials some confidence in the labor market. Therefore, the number of new non-farm payroll jobs alone is insufficient to completely determine the Fed's policy direction; the market will also focus on detailed data such as the unemployment rate and average hourly earnings. From the UK perspective, Peel's hawkish remarks have already provided a policy premium for the pound, but significant uncertainty remains regarding UK economic growth. If rising energy prices continue to push up inflation, the Bank of England may face pressure to rebalance economic growth and price stability. Therefore, whether the pound can continue to strengthen depends not only on the central bank's interest rate hike expectations but also on whether economic data supports this policy path. From a daily chart perspective, the GBP/USD pair currently maintains a relatively positive technical pattern, trading above the 100-day simple moving average and the lower Bollinger Band, indicating that the previously formed upward structure remains intact. The 14-day RSI is around 52, slightly above the 50 midline, suggesting that bulls still hold some advantage, but momentum is not strong, and the current phase is closer to a consolidation phase after the rise. The price is currently facing resistance around the middle Bollinger Band at approximately 1.3555. If it breaks through and holds this area, it may further test the upper Bollinger Band around 1.3600 and 1.3660. On the downside, the first support level to watch is the lower Bollinger Band around 1.3450, followed by the 100-day moving average around 1.3445. If this area is broken, the recent bullish structure will weaken significantly, potentially opening up a deeper correction. On the 4-hour chart, the GBP/USD pair shows a short-term bullish bias, with the 1.3500 level becoming a crucial psychological level for both bulls and bears. As long as the price can remain above 1.3500, the short-term rebound structure remains intact, and the probability of testing 1.3555 is high. Once 1.3555 is broken and confirmed, the exchange rate may extend further towards 1.3600 or even 1.3660; conversely, if the price fails to break higher and falls back below 1.3500, the support around 1.3450 should be watched, and a further loss below 1.3445 would mean that the short-term correction may be more significant. Overall, before the release of the US non-farm payroll data, the pound/dollar exchange rate is more likely to maintain high-level fluctuations, and 1.3555 will be a key level for judging the strength of the short-term bulls and bears. Editor's Summary: The contrast between the Bank of England's hawkish comments and the cooling of expectations for a Fed rate hike has provided some upward momentum for the pound against the dollar. Market expectations for a November rate hike from the Bank of England are currently significantly higher than in September, and changes in the UK-US interest rate differential also temporarily favor the pound. However, the US August non-farm payroll report remains the biggest short-term risk event. If the US employment data is weaker than expected, the pound/dollar pair could break through 1.3555 and move towards the 1.3660 area; if the non-farm payroll data is strong, a dollar rebound could cause the exchange rate to retest the 1.3450-1.3445 support zone. From the current structure, the pound remains relatively strong in the short term, but further upside potential still requires confirmation from macroeconomic data.