The pound/dollar pair continued its decline from the previous trading day during Asian trading on Monday, fluctuating narrowly around 1.3530. Limited intraday volatility and a continued position above Friday's lows indicate that the bears have not yet generated significant downward momentum. The US dollar has recently received some fundamental support, mainly due to significantly stronger-than-expected US employment data. US non-farm payrolls increased by 162,000 in August, far exceeding the market's previous expectation of 56,000, while the unemployment rate remained at 4.1%. This strong employment performance has raised market expectations for a near-term tightening of monetary policy by the Federal Reserve, with nearly 60% of bets now on a September rate hike. However, the dollar's strength following the non-farm payroll data release has not been entirely sustained. Recent market performance shows the dollar index remaining near 99 on Monday, with the interest rate advantage from the strong employment data being offset by other factors. On one hand, the market is awaiting US inflation data to confirm whether the Fed will indeed take action in September; on the other hand, the escalating tensions in the Middle East have led to a rapid rise in energy prices, increasing uncertainty surrounding global inflation. This week, US PPI and CPI will be key events influencing the direction of the pound/dollar exchange rate. Especially the CPI data; if rising energy prices begin to clearly transmit to overall inflation, the market may further increase the probability of a Fed rate hike, and a stronger dollar will put new pressure on the pound/dollar. Conversely, if core inflation remains moderate, the market may lower its expectations for interest rate hikes again, limiting the dollar's previous rebound and giving GBP/USD a chance to regain upward momentum. Energy prices have become an undeniable variable in the current foreign exchange market. Tensions between the US and Iran have pushed WTI crude oil to around $92 and Brent crude oil close to $97. High oil prices not only increase the risk of US inflation but may also force major central banks to reassess their monetary policy paths. For the pound, UK economic data is also worth watching. The market will receive the UK's monthly GDP data this Friday, which will provide new clues about the state of UK economic growth. If the UK economy performs better than expected, it may alleviate the recent downward pressure on the pound; if economic growth slows significantly, it may strengthen market expectations for further easing by the Bank of England, thus limiting the pound's rebound. Meanwhile, the US Labor Day holiday has reduced overall market liquidity, and investors temporarily lack the impetus to push the exchange rate sharply higher. Therefore, before the release of US inflation data and UK GDP data, GBP/USD is more likely to maintain range-bound trading rather than forming a direct trend. From a daily chart perspective, GBP/USD currently maintains a mildly bearish pattern but has not yet shown a clear trend breakout. The exchange rate is still trading near the 50-day simple moving average, currently around 1.3460, which is also a significant recent trend support area. The 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level is also concentrated in the 1.3470-1.3460 area, making this a key battleground between bulls and bears. In terms of momentum indicators, the 14-day RSI is around 48.7, below the neutral zone, indicating weakening bullish momentum, but not yet clearly oversold. The MACD line is slightly below the zero line, still bearish in the short term, but the signal is not strong enough to confirm a new downward trend. Therefore, if the exchange rate continues to approach 1.3460, it is crucial to observe whether this area can provide effective support. On the upside, the first resistance level to watch is the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level around 1.3548. If GBP/USD regains control above 1.3548, the short-term downward pressure may ease, and there is a chance to further test 1.3600 and the 1.3673-1.3675 area near the August high. Historical data also shows that GBP/USD touched around 1.3677 in August, and there is still some room for it to fall below that high. The key support level to watch is the 1.3470-1.3460 range. If this area is broken, the next target will be the 50% Fibonacci retracement level around 1.3407, and a further break below that could lead to a move towards the 1.3345 area. If 1.3460 holds, GBP/USD still has a chance for a technical rebound. Overall, GBP/USD is currently between key support and short-term resistance, with 1.3460 and 1.3548 forming important lower and upper boundaries, respectively. A break above either level could provide a clearer signal for the next direction. Editor's Summary: The core contradiction in GBP/USD currently lies in the strong US employment situation and rising expectations of US inflation policy, which are suppressing the pound's performance, while the dollar itself has not yet formed a sustained strong trend. The significantly better-than-expected US non-farm payrolls in August have significantly increased the probability of a Fed rate hike in September, but this week's CPI will be key to further confirming the policy path. In the short term, 1.3460 is a crucial defensive level for GBP/USD, while 1.3548 is the first resistance level that needs to be broken for a rebound. If the US CPI is overheated, the dollar may strengthen further, and a break below 1.3460 for GBP/USD would open up room for a pullback to 1.3407 or even 1.3345. If the CPI is moderate and UK GDP performance is stable, the exchange rate is expected to retest 1.3548 and further rebound towards the 1.3600 and 1.3670 areas. Currently, it is more appropriate to wait for a breakout of key technical levels before judging the trend direction.