Goldman Sachs' commodities analyst team issued a new market warning, explicitly stating that if maritime attacks in the Middle East continue and geopolitical conflicts escalate further, the global crude oil supply chain will suffer a severe blow, and international crude oil prices are highly likely to surge, potentially reaching as high as $120 per barrel. Conversely, the institution also offered a conservative forecast: if regional tensions gradually ease, the geopolitical situation stabilizes, crude oil export and transportation return to normal, and market supply and demand return to balance, oil prices will experience a phase of correction, falling back to the $80 per barrel range. Goldman Sachs' latest analysis states that the escalating shipping security risks in the Middle East are the biggest positive catalyst for current oil prices, with escalating conflicts directly pushing crude oil prices towards the $120/barrel mark. At the same time, Goldman Sachs emphasizes that compared to the relatively controllable volatility of crude oil, natural gas and diesel offer better investment value, advising investors to focus on long positions in these assets to accurately capture this round of energy price increases. Daan Struyven, co-head of global commodities research at Goldman Sachs, provides an in-depth analysis of the logic behind this round of energy price increases. He frankly states that the recent series of sudden changes in the Middle East geopolitical situation has fueled market concerns about widespread disruptions to regional shipping and a tightening of global energy supply. This panic has been fully reflected in market prices, becoming the core driving force supporting the continued strength of oil prices. The core of this round of Middle East geopolitical conflict focuses on the Strait of Hormuz, a vital waterway for global energy trade, handling a large volume of global oil and refined product shipping, and directly influencing the global energy supply and demand landscape. Recent regional tensions have persisted, with the US military frequently conducting military operations against Iranian oil tankers, disrupting the regional shipping balance. Iran has retaliated by establishing a new maritime restricted area around this key strategic waterway, further restricting the passage of crude oil and exacerbating market anxieties about supply disruptions. According to market sources, the US Navy continues to maintain routine blockades and controls over ports surrounding Iran, strictly limiting the export of Iranian crude oil. Simultaneously, the US military is providing dedicated escort services for departing tankers from other oil-exporting countries in the Middle East. This differentiated military deployment is further fragmenting the regional energy export landscape, significantly increasing market supply uncertainty. Boosted by multiple geopolitical risks, the international crude oil market has rebounded strongly, achieving its best performance since July of this year. Data shows that Brent crude oil spot and futures prices stabilized at $97.55 per barrel, a single-day increase of 1.32%; West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil followed suit, rising to $92.64 per barrel, a single-day increase of 1.28%. The simultaneous rise of these two major crude oil varieties confirms the strong upward trend in the global crude oil market. Investment Strategy: Focus on Natural Gas and Diesel, Prioritizing Crude Oil Futures It is worth noting that Goldman Sachs did not advise market investors to blindly follow the trend and buy large amounts of crude oil futures contracts to chase short-term crude oil price increases. Instead, the institution offered a more cost-effective differentiated investment plan, explicitly setting global natural gas and diesel as core allocation targets, and recommending investors focus on establishing long positions to seize opportunities with higher certainty. Struve explained that compared to the crude oil market, natural gas and diesel are more sensitive to supply disruptions; once supply chain disruptions occur, the price fluctuations and potential for price increases will be far greater than those for crude oil. Looking at market data this year, diesel prices have more than doubled, with a cumulative increase exceeding 100%. Natural gas prices have also risen sharply, significantly outperforming traditional energy commodities like crude oil, resulting in substantial profit advantages. The current Middle East geopolitical conflict has lasted for over six months, and the prolonged instability continues to disrupt the global energy supply chain, driving up prices across all energy commodities. However, looking at specific categories, the price increases and sustainability of refined oil and natural gas far exceed those of benchmark crude oil, demonstrating a clear market divergence and highlighting structural opportunities. Goldman Sachs' tactical portfolio adjustment strategy is clear and specific: compared to solely investing in traditional crude oil futures and speculating on rising crude oil prices, focusing on alternative energy categories such as natural gas and diesel can help investors mitigate policy hedging risks in the crude oil market and obtain more stable and higher excess returns. The Key Impact of the Chinese Market on the Global Crude Oil Landscape Struivin emphasized the regulatory role of the Chinese market in his analysis, stating that China, as one of the world's largest energy importers, possesses a massive consumption volume and flexible import control policies, making it a core force in stabilizing the global crude oil market. When international oil prices surge and the market overheats, China typically adjusts its crude oil import volume and reduces total purchases to curb irrational price increases through market-based regulation, setting a clear ceiling for global crude oil price increases. However, Goldman Sachs also emphasizes that China's price stabilization effect has significant category limitations, effective only in the crude oil market and unable to extend to the natural gas and refined oil markets. This means that if geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East continue to escalate and shipping disruptions persist, the natural gas and diesel markets will lose crucial price buffers, making them highly susceptible to sustained and significant price increases. It's important to clarify that the $120 per barrel oil price forecast is an optimistic scenario based on extreme geopolitical risks, not a market benchmark expectation. Achieving this high price target requires two core conditions: a continued escalation of maritime attacks in the Middle East and prolonged disruptions to the regional crude oil transportation supply chain. Currently, the global crude oil market is in a state of high alert and heightened tension, with the geopolitical situation in the Strait of Hormuz continuing to evolve dynamically, and its future trajectory fraught with uncertainty. Global market participants and institutional investors are closely monitoring the evolving situation, assessing the likelihood of escalation or diplomatic reconciliation in real time, and adjusting their energy asset allocation strategies accordingly. Disclaimer: This article is for market information purposes only and does not constitute investment advice for any individual or institution. Investors should make rational decisions based on their own risk tolerance.