On Wednesday (September 9) during the Asian session, the Australian dollar continued to consolidate near 0.7220 against the US dollar, remaining within the trading top area since May 15, with the bullish trend unchanged. Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Deputy Governor Hauser gave the clearest signal to date in a media interview on Tuesday evening – the central bank is weighing another rate hike this month, stating that inflation is the "only big problem," and pointing to the three monsters driving persistent inflation: Middle East conflict, AI-driven global prosperity, and domestic supply constraints. Hauser did not explicitly state that a rate hike was "inevitable," but left the decision to the committee, with the core question being "whether enough has been done." The RBA has already raised rates three times this year to 4.35%, and the four major banks expect another 25 basis point hike to 4.6% by the end of the year. Hauser's remarks echoed those of Assistant Governor Hunt on the same day, reinforcing the hawkish signal ahead of the meeting.

Reserve Bank of Australia Deputy Governor Hauser: Inflation is "the only big problem," and a September rate hike is under consideration.

In a media interview, Hauser explicitly stated that inflation is the Reserve Bank of Australia's "only big problem," and frankly acknowledged public anger over persistently high living costs. He bluntly stated that inflation is "unfair" and "makes people angry," a rare instance of directly linking policy communication to pressing public concerns. Hauser described current inflationary pressures as being driven by a "triad": first, geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East pushing up energy and shipping costs; second, the global investment boom in artificial intelligence driving capital expenditure and resource demand; and third, long-standing supply constraints in Australia, including labor shortages, insufficient housing supply, and logistical bottlenecks. He pointed out that if the central bank prioritizes combating inflation over achieving full employment, it could theoretically implement larger interest rate hikes, but Australia has not yet reached that critical point. Hauser deliberately avoided using the phrase "interest rate hikes are inevitable," instead emphasizing that the final decision rests with the Monetary Policy Committee, with the core consideration being "whether enough has been done." This cautious statement both sends a hawkish signal and retains policy flexibility, highlighting the complexity of the trade-offs ahead of the September meeting.

The Australian dollar found support as the market focuses on the September meeting.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has already raised interest rates three times this year, pushing the cash rate to 4.35%. Currently, the four major banks generally expect another 25 basis point hike to 4.6% by the end of the year. It's worth noting that the latest inflation data will be released on September 30th, but this release date is later than the September policy meeting, meaning policymakers will make decisions with incomplete information. Hauser's remarks echoed Assistant Governor Hunt's comments on the same day, reinforcing the hawkish signal before the meeting. Supported by this, the Australian dollar's short-term strength has continued, but its upside potential remains constrained by expectations of a US interest rate hike and changes in global risk sentiment. The market generally believes that if the RBA chooses to hold rates steady or make only a slight adjustment in September, the Australian dollar may face profit-taking pressure; conversely, if a rate hike is implemented, it could further open up upside potential. Overall, the Australian dollar is more likely to fluctuate between 0.7150 and 0.7250 in the short term. Traders will closely monitor the outcome of the RBA's September meeting and the potential impact of concurrent US inflation data.

Summarize

Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Deputy Governor Hauser gave the clearest signal to date – the central bank is weighing a rate hike this month, with inflation being the "only big problem." The three monsters (Middle East conflict, AI boom, and supply constraints) are driving inflation. The RBA has already raised rates three times to 4.35%, and the four major banks expect another 25 basis points to 4.6% by the end of the year. The Australian dollar is supported and slightly stronger in the short term, but its upside potential is limited by expectations of US rate hikes and global risk sentiment. The market is focused on the September meeting and US inflation data. Hauser's speech echoed Hunt's comments on the same day, reinforcing a hawkish signal. Inflation data will be released after the meeting on September 30th, and policymakers will make decisions based on incomplete data. The Australian dollar is likely to trade in the 0.7150-0.7250 range in the short term. (Australian dollar against US dollar daily chart, source: EasyForex) At 8:24 Beijing time, the Australian dollar was trading at 0.7223/24 against the US dollar.