Gold and silver prices rose during the early U.S. trading session on Wednesday (September 9). Escalating tensions between the U.S. and Iran, Brent crude oil breaking through $100 a barrel, and a weakening dollar fueled safe-haven buying ahead of this week's U.S. inflation report. At the time of writing, spot gold was trading around $4,413.82 an ounce, up 1.34%; spot silver was at $67.180, up 2.21% on the day. The current market is characterized by a complex interplay of bullish and bearish forces: on one hand, there is safe-haven demand driven by geopolitical tensions, while on the other hand, the Federal Reserve maintains its hawkish stance. Market pricing indicates a roughly 60% probability of a 25 basis point rate hike at the Fed's September 15-16 meeting; the 10-year Treasury yield is near 4.81%, a new high since October 2023. The US Producer Price Index (PPI) will be released on Thursday, and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) on Friday; renewed inflation concerns due to oil price shocks have further increased the market importance of these two data points. In the short term, the environment for gold presents both advantages and disadvantages, but the overall bias is bullish: rising oil prices and higher US Treasury yields increase the opportunity cost of holding precious metals; however, safe-haven inflows, a weaker dollar, and concerns about Gulf oil transport routes offset the bearish pressure from interest rates. Although gold and silver have rebounded, neither has broken through key technical resistance levels, meaning the trend has not yet fully recovered. Gold has rebounded from the $4,347 support level and is testing the $4,422 resistance level; silver held the $64.73 support level but remains under pressure below $67.21. Market activity suggests that buyers are taking advantage of pullbacks to capitalize on geopolitical risks; however, subsequent inflation data will determine whether this rebound can continue or stall under pressure from expectations of a Fed rate hike. The Strait of Hormuz is the most crucial geopolitical variable affecting oil prices, inflation expectations, and safe-haven demand. The US military stated that on Tuesday, US forces sank five Iranian oil tankers that attacked US warships; in retaliation, Iran launched strikes against US targets in Jordan. Both the US and Iran are vying for control of the Strait of Hormuz, which, before the war, carried approximately one-fifth of the world's oil. The series of conflicts has pushed Brent crude up to $100.72, while WTI crude opened at $95.25. For gold, geopolitical shocks have a dual impact: the Strait of Hormuz crisis benefits safe-haven buying; however, rising energy prices will push up inflation expectations, keeping US Treasury yields high and maintaining the risk of a rate hike at next week's Fed meeting. Before the US stock market opened, global stock markets showed mixed performance and were generally weak. Oil prices broke through $100, coupled with US Treasury yields at a three-year high, causing US stock index futures to fall. Volatility in the bond market put pressure on interest rate-sensitive stocks, but the energy sector received relative support. European and Asian markets were also suppressed by oil prices and high yields, market risk appetite cooled, and traders awaited the release of US inflation data. Major overseas market performance: New York WTI crude oil strengthened to around $95.25 per barrel; Brent crude oil was around $100.72. The benchmark 10-year US Treasury yield was close to 4.81%, and the US dollar index weakened. Gold Technical Analysis The next upside target for spot gold bulls is to push the price above the $4422.00 resistance level; a successful break above this level would target $4465.00, with the next target at $4512.00. The short-term downside target for bears is a break below $4347.00 support, followed by $4290.00, and then $4263.00. First resistance is $4422.00, then $4465.00; first support is $4347.00, then $4290.00. Silver Technical Analysis The next upside target for spot silver bulls is a move above $67.21; a break above this level would target $68.74, with a further target of $70.76. The downside target for bears is a break below $64.73 support, with a deeper downside target of $62.57. The first resistance level is $67.21, followed by $68.74; the first support level is $64.73, followed by $62.57.