On Friday (September 11) during Asian trading hours, US crude oil futures touched $104.46 per barrel, a new high since May 19. The continued escalation of geopolitical risk premiums reflects a profound restructuring of global oil trade flows. As European and Asian refiners become increasingly intertwined with US pricing, WTI crude oil's position as the global benchmark is strengthening. Against the backdrop of ongoing geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East and Europe, the global energy market is facing a period of prolonged high volatility in crude oil and refined product prices. The core logic is that the repeated opening and closing of the Strait of Hormuz forces Asian and European buyers to seek alternative supplies, while the US, with its production scale and export capacity, is becoming an increasingly important supplier in the global market, directly boosting WTI's position as the global pricing benchmark.

Futures Curve Reconstruction: From Parity to Deep Spot Premium

The futures forward curve is a key market-based indicator reflecting the immediate supply and demand balance. Following the outbreak of the Iranian conflict, the global crude oil market shifted to a deep cash-to-foreign premium structure—near-term contracts were priced higher than forward contracts. Before the conflict in February 2026, the WTI calendar spread from December 2026 to December 2027 was approximately $0.10 per barrel; by May 2026, this spread had surged to over $10 per barrel, and volatility persisted. This market behavior reflects a shift in sentiment triggered by tight physical supply and changing regional export flows, further amplified by the alternating ceasefire negotiations and renewed fighting in the Middle East.

Supply chain disruptions: Refined oil market hit hardest

The ongoing disruption to the Strait of Hormuz has far-reaching effects, restricting both crude oil and refined product supplies—the strait is a major choke point for access to and from the Persian Gulf. This tightening supply is clearly visible in major refined product benchmarks: the absolute prices and crack spreads of CME New York Port ultra-low sulfur diesel and New York RBOB gasoline futures are near historical highs. The US diesel crack spread reached as high as $100 per barrel in August, the highest level on record. With global inventories continuing to decline, refined product prices may face a prolonged period of high levels. Total distillate fuel inventories stand at 103.3 million barrels, nearly 9.5% lower than the same period last year and also below the five-year average. US diesel and gasoline retail prices are already at historical highs.

Asia-Pacific refiners turn to the US market

Amid supply shortages and persistently high oil prices, the United States has solidified its position as a global export powerhouse. In May 2026, total U.S. crude oil and refined product exports reached a record high of over 13.5 million barrels per day, a 30% year-on-year increase. Driven by strong domestic production and surging global demand—particularly as a substitute for supply disruptions in the Middle East—U.S. weekly crude oil exports have consistently hovered between 4 and 5 million barrels per day throughout the year. A significant amount of U.S. crude oil flows to major Asian economies. Exports to Asia increased significantly after the U.S. lifted its export ban in 2016, and before European buyers increased purchases due to the Russia-Ukraine conflict, Asia often accounted for 40% to 50% of total U.S. crude oil exports. Now, the Middle East conflict is forcing Asian refiners to increase their purchases of U.S. crude oil again. Asia typically relies on the Middle East for about 60% of its crude oil imports, making it highly vulnerable to the current crisis. In May 2026, U.S. crude oil exports reached a record monthly high of 5.6 million barrels per day, with exports to Asia exceeding 2.5 million barrels per day for the first time, partly driven by record imports in South Korea and Japan. South Korea, a long-time major consumer of US crude oil, rapidly accelerated its purchases amid supply shortages; while Japan, which traditionally sources over 90% of its crude oil from the Middle East, has significantly shifted its focus to the US for alternative supplies. Singapore, as a regional refining hub, also resumed active purchases of US crude oil amid severe disruptions to traffic in the Strait of Hormuz.

Calls are growing in Europe for alternative crude oil supplies.

The European market has been under pressure since 2022, suffering economic impacts from a sharp decline in Russian spot gas. The region, which has been importing more US gas in the form of liquefied natural gas (LNG), is now turning to the US again as it seeks to mitigate the worst effects of the conflict with Iran. The latest crude oil export data from the US Gulf Coast shows a significant increase in total exports to Northwest Europe and the Mediterranean, exceeding 2 million barrels per day in the first half of 2026, an increase of approximately 20% compared to the same period last year. With the Middle East crude oil shortage worsening and the possibility of rising prices increasing, refiners are turning to alternative sources of supply deemed more readily available, with the US seen as a reliable alternative in the market. These changes underpin the role of CME Group's WTI futures on the global stage, as refiners' correlation with US benchmark prices becomes more direct.

Increased US traffic provides more opportunities for WTI-linked pricing.

Geopolitical headwinds influencing crude oil prices have significantly altered global energy flows. The Russia-Ukraine conflict, the Iranian military clashes, and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz have disrupted traditional crude oil supplies, particularly in the Asia-Pacific and Europe. WTI's relevance as a global benchmark is increasing, and its pricing is being heavily used in the Atlantic Basin. Meanwhile, Asian refiners continue to process large quantities of US crude oil, potentially further strengthening WTI's role on the global stage. In an era characterized by unprecedented supply disruptions and price volatility, WTI-linked oil pricing is becoming more important than ever. (US crude oil futures daily chart, source: FX678) At 8:32 Beijing time, US crude oil futures were trading at $103.05 per barrel.