On the eve of the Super Central Bank Week in September 2026, the previously released US August CPI inflation data showed a slight decline but with stickiness exceeding expectations. Coupled with the existing background of Middle East geopolitical conflicts pushing up oil prices and global bond market volatility, the market has completely reversed its expectations for easing. This week, major central banks around the world are facing a new marginal window for a comprehensive restructuring of policy expectations. The core incremental factors are concentrated in three new changes: the escalation of the game between the Federal Reserve, the upward revision of hawkish expectations of many central banks, and the market's reversal of trends.

Latest marginal catalyst: Old inflationary conditions have solidified, while new risks continue to escalate.

The previous lack of effective inflation relief, Saudi Arabia's closure of land-based oil pipelines in the Middle East pushing up oil prices, and the rise in US Treasury yields are all established facts. The recent core changes are concentrated in the new evolution of risk expectations and policy logic, which raises the question of whether it is inflation or the high growth of the lending industry that is driving up interest rates.

Key new changes: Global central bank policy expectations have been collectively revised upwards to a more hawkish stance.

Based on the established fundamentals of inflation and energy, the biggest marginal increase recently has been the complete reversal of previous easing expectations by the four major central banks—the US, UK, Japan, and Europe—which have simultaneously released signals of increased efforts to combat inflation, forming a new turning point in global tightening. The Federal Reserve: A Difficult Game Between Political Pressure and Market Credibility Compared to the previously fixed policy landscape, the recent new variable is the intensified political game within the Federal Reserve and a significant jump in interest rate hike expectations: Trump's continued pressure for rate cuts and even threats of trade sanctions have created strong political interference in the new Fed Chairman Warsh's administration, a unique new game dynamic in this round. After last week's CPI data release, market expectations underwent a radical correction: the probability of a Fed rate hike in September surged from 70% to 90%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point rate hike this year increased significantly. The market has completely abandoned the old expectation of "one rate hike and it's over," and the latest incremental views from institutions unanimously favor multiple rounds of rate hikes, with restoring the Fed's policy credibility becoming the core policy objective. On the incremental signals front, Goldman Sachs recently warned of the credibility risk of not raising interest rates, while the White House recently released its first conciliatory signal and stated its respect for the Fed's independence, providing a new policy buffer for this rate hike and significantly reducing policy uncertainty. Bank of England: Hawks Hold Rates Steady, Reserving Room for Further Rate Hikes The market expectation of the Bank of England maintaining its existing interest rate was already priced in. The recent marginal change is a significant upgrade in hawkish expectations: combined with better-than-expected economic data and new pressure from oil prices, the market has increased its forecast for the number of rate hikes in the next 12 months from three to four, with the mainstream consensus shifting to a hawkish stance of "holding rates steady this time, with continued rate hikes later." Bank of Japan: Ending Deflation, Entering the Era of 30-Year Highest Interest Rates The Bank of Japan has reached the biggest marginal turning point in this round of global policy: the market fully priced in a 25 basis point rate hike in September to 1.25%, a 31-year high, officially ending the ultra-loose deflationary policy. Coupled with clear US support for rate hikes and increased demand for yen recovery, the pace of policy normalization has accelerated faster than expected. European Central Bank: First to Raise Rates, Locking in Tightening Stance The European Central Bank's previous rate hikes have been implemented, and its recent new statements clearly lock in a medium- to long-term tightening stance, emphasizing that the Middle East conflict will solidify inflationary pressures in the long term, completely dispelling market hopes for short-term rate cuts.

New Market Marginal Impact and New Landscape

AI stocks have recently experienced some minor setbacks: Firstly, amidst extremely high expectations of interest rate hikes, US stock futures bucked the trend and strengthened. The core driver of this growth was better-than-expected corporate earnings reports, creating a new pricing logic in the market—strong fundamentals can withstand multiple rounds of interest rate hikes, and this particular hike is expected to restore the credibility of the Federal Reserve and alleviate upward pressure on long-term US Treasury yields. However, leading AI pioneers subsequently supported a warning from an Anthropic researcher, who argued for a "significant risk of catastrophic and irreversible loss of control in the near term." Geoffrey Hinton considered a 10% risk of human extinction "a reasonable estimate." However, some analysts believe that the current "AI doomsday" narrative is exaggerated by the media, and the real risk does not come from the model's capabilities themselves, but rather from the "hysteria" that may replace thoughtful debate. Trump also stated that he still believes in the need to vigorously develop AI, and Musk subsequently posted on social media that Grok 4.8, a model with 2.5 trillion parameters, trained using our new C++ software stack, will complete training this week and begin reinforcement learning. In other words, if AI investment continues, global central bank interest rate hikes can be absorbed by the high growth driven by the AI industry. However, if AI slows down, a crisis could occur. Liquidity issues have arisen; the current synchronized hawkish shift in many countries has created a rare global liquidity tightening turning point since 2006, leading to a systemic rise in global financing costs and continuously suppressing the pace of global economic recovery. Geopolitical economic competition has also escalated, with the continued conflict between the Federal Reserve's anti-inflationary interest rate hikes and the White House's demands for rate cuts making monetary policy independence a new market focus. The interconnected pricing logic of geopolitics, energy, and central bank policies has been significantly strengthened.

Future marginal outlook: Tightening expectations continue to be revised upwards

Overall, previous data such as CPI, inflation, and geopolitical shocks have already been fully priced in. The core of this market trend is a new marginal restructuring of policy expectations, market pricing, and the game-theoretic landscape. The global tightening cycle continues to lengthen, but the ultimate impact on the market will depend on whether a narrative of sustained high growth emerges. Going forward, the core trading themes will all be driven by new variables: the expectation of consecutive Fed rate hikes, the accelerated gradual tightening by the Bank of England and the Bank of Japan, and real-time marginal fluctuations in the Middle East situation and oil prices will continue to dominate global asset pricing. The new market structure of high interest rates and sticky high inflation will further deepen.