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2026-09-15 20:22:11
[US Employment High-Frequency Indicator: Four-Week Moving Average Rises for the Second Consecutive Week] ⑴ The weekly update of the National Employment Report, released by the Automatic Data Processing (ADP) Research Institute in collaboration with the Stanford Digital Economy Lab, shows that in the four weeks ending August 29, US private employers added an average of approximately 16,300 jobs per week. ⑵ This four-week moving average has rebounded significantly from the previous week's approximately 12,300, marking the second consecutive week of improvement. ⑶ Looking at a longer time series, the average for the week ending August 15 was approximately 10,000, for the week ending August 8 it was approximately 11,800, for the week ending August 1 it was approximately 9,500, and for the week ending July 25 it was approximately 8,300, indicating that hiring momentum weakened in the middle of summer. ⑷ Data around mid-July was relatively higher, with approximately 14,500 for the week ending July 11, approximately 16,300 for the week ending July 4, and readings from late June to mid-June falling into a higher range of approximately 19,800 to 24,300. (5) This indicator measures the week-on-week change in employment based on a four-week moving average. The data is seasonally adjusted and has a lag of approximately two weeks to improve the completeness and accuracy of real-time employment trend estimates. (6) It should be noted that the above figures are preliminary estimates and may be revised as new data is added. (7) This weekly update is usually released every Tuesday at 8:15 PM Beijing time, and includes 12 weeks of historical data, but is suspended in the week when the Automatic Data Processing Research Institute releases its monthly national employment report. (8) The next weekly update is scheduled for release on September 22. (9) From a market perspective, the four-week moving average has been rising continuously from its low point, indicating that private sector hiring has stabilized somewhat, but the overall level is still lower than in early summer. It is necessary to monitor whether this trend can continue and the degree of deviation between it and official non-farm payroll data.
