Gold and silver prices rose during the early U.S. trading session on Wednesday (September 16). Amid a pullback in crude oil prices and a slight easing of pressure on U.S. Treasury yields, precious metals rebounded ahead of the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision. Spot gold traded around $4,352.07 per ounce, up 1.36%; spot silver was at $64.555 per ounce, up 1.41% on the day. The market's current focus is on the Federal Reserve's policy decision at 2 PM Eastern Time, Chairman Kevin Warsh's press conference, and the updated dot plot of interest rate expectations. August US retail sales rose 1.2% month-over-month, higher than the market expectation of 0.7%; the controlled retail sales group rose 1.4% month-over-month, indicating stronger-than-expected US consumer fundamentals. This data further supports the expectation of a 25 basis point rate hike by the Fed, which the market has largely priced in, with a probability of approximately 90%-93%. For gold, the greater risk comes from the interest rate path after this decision. If this rate hike is the last in this cycle, some pressure on real yields will be released; however, if the Fed signals that it will continue to raise rates, the 10-year US Treasury yield will remain around 5%, suppressing the upside potential of this type of non-interest-bearing precious metal. Before the Federal Reserve's announcement, the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) Housing Market Index will be released at 10 AM Eastern Time, the last important economic data point before the decision. The recent strength in gold and silver prices stems from a temporary halt in the rise of oil prices and US Treasury yields, but this does not indicate that the risk of interest rate hikes has dissipated. Gold has rebounded from the support level of $4283 and is now challenging the resistance level of $4354; silver has regained the $64.40 mark and is testing the resistance near $65.28. The future trend of the precious metals sector will largely depend on Warsh's statements. If the Federal Reserve characterizes this market-expected interest rate hike as a limited measure to address inflation driven by oil prices, the rebound in gold and silver prices is likely to continue; if updated interest rate expectations suggest a further expansion of the tightening cycle, the US dollar and US Treasury yields may once again dominate the market. The Strait of Hormuz remains the most important geopolitical factor affecting oil prices, inflation expectations, and safe-haven buying. After the data showing a 7.1 million barrel increase in US crude oil inventories, oil prices fell for the first time this week, but the overall risk on the oil supply side has not been eliminated. Saudi Arabia's critical oil pipeline remains shut down; the Iranian-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen continue attacks on infrastructure and shipping vessels; Iran is also targeting merchant ships in the Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude is trading around $105.20 per barrel, and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude is around $102.02 per barrel, still significantly higher than pre-conflict levels. The current market environment for gold is contradictory: the decline in oil prices has eased short-term inflationary pressures, but the ongoing risks in Gulf shipping continue to drive safe-haven buying of gold. Major overseas markets: WTI crude oil prices on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell to around $103.70 per barrel; Brent crude was around $107.60 per barrel. The benchmark 10-year US Treasury yield remained around 5%. The US dollar index showed mixed performance, but was generally stronger. Gold Technical Analysis The next upside target for spot gold bulls is to push the price above the resistance level of $4354.00; a successful break above this level would target $4403.00, and then $4433.00. The short-term downside target for bears is to push the price below $4316.00; a break below this level would target $4283.00 and then $4256.00. The first resistance level is $4354.00, followed by $4403.00; the first support level is $4316.00, followed by $4283.00. Silver technical analysis... The next upside target for spot silver bulls is to push the price above $65.28; a break above this level would target $65.98, with a further target of $66.74. The downside target for bears is a break below $64.40; a break below that would target $63.45, then $62.57. First resistance is at $65.28, followed by $65.98; first support is at $64.40, followed by $63.45.