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2026-09-17 14:40:10
[Wash's Press Conference Tone Shifts: From Vague Statements to Detailed Data Analysis] 1. Compared to July, Warsh's tone at this press conference showed a significant shift. At that time, he rarely mentioned factors that would prompt the Fed to raise interest rates, and long-term Treasury yields rose during his speech. This time, Warsh meticulously analyzed various data points, listing changes since the last meeting, which analysts described as "sounding more like a former Fed chairman." 2. Some analysts viewed this as an "attempt to actively reverse the Fed's credibility narrative," supported by the consistent predictions of officials. Sources indicated that knowing you lead a team with full support is much easier than trying to cobble together a narrative for a team lacking genuine consensus. 3. This consistency reflects a shift in officials' assessment of the inflation situation. Earlier this year, several officials believed the energy shock would eventually subside, and the Fed could wait and see, as it did last year with the tariff shock. When oil prices fell, some officials used this as an opportunity to point out that inflation had slowed within a three-month window. However, other officials worry that the various shocks are compounding and they can no longer be assumed to subside on their own. 4. Subsequently, crude oil prices have rebounded to around $100 per barrel, and diesel and other refined product prices have risen further. Analysts say officials have now "entered an acceptance phase," recognizing that while inflation is relatively mild, it will persist.
