Live Updates > Live Update Details
2026-09-18 09:16:09
[JPMorgan Chase: Oil Market Outlook Unpredictable, Demand Shrinkage Temporarily Restrains Price Gains] 1. JPMorgan Chase stated on Thursday that for the first time since the start of the US-Israel war in Iraq, it was unable to make a clear baseline judgment on the oil market. Analysts said, "We simply don't know how to predict the ultimate outcome of this conflict." The bank noted that oil prices have risen above $100 per barrel, with US gasoline prices reaching $4.37 per gallon and diesel prices hitting a record high of $6.31 per gallon, while inventories are at historically low levels. 2. JPMorgan Chase estimates that the fair value of Brent crude in September is approximately $90 per barrel, while the current price is close to $104, indicating that the market is priced in the risk of supply disruptions expanding further from the currently estimated 10 million barrels per day. Risks in the Middle East are also escalating, including threats to shipping in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait and recent attacks affecting Saudi export routes. 3. However, despite the significant scale of supply disruptions, oil price increases have not been as dramatic as expected. Since the outbreak of the conflict, global crude oil and refined product inventories have decreased by approximately 555 million barrels, only about one-third of the decline previously predicted by JPMorgan Chase; global oil demand is about 4.4 million barrels per day lower than the same period last year. JPMorgan Chase stated that the market is relying more on shrinking demand than depleting inventories to absorb supply disruptions, thus the average price of Brent crude since the conflict has been only $94 per barrel. 4. The International Energy Agency stated last week that the decline in global oil supply and demand this year may both exceed previous expectations. In contrast, OPEC, despite lowering its forecast for the fifth consecutive month, still expects global oil demand to grow by 380,000 barrels per day in 2026. 5. JPMorgan Chase stated that China, Europe, Japan, and South Korea still have large inventories available, which can provide a buffer against prolonged supply disruptions. However, if Middle East supply disruptions persist, oil prices may rise later this year as inventories further decline and the market increasingly relies on shrinking demand to maintain balance. The bank concluded: "There is still enough 'ammunition' to curb rising oil prices, at least for now."
