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2026-09-18 20:44:16
[Crude Oil Falls While Refined Oil Prices Remain Strong; Record Diesel Prices Exacerbate Crack Divergence] ⑴ Crude oil prices have fallen for the third consecutive trading day, but refined oil prices continue to climb, showing a clear divergence. ⑵ US diesel prices hit a record high, rising to $6.45 per gallon. ⑶ Meanwhile, media reports indicate that Saudi Aramco has notified European refineries that it expects no crude oil deliveries in October. ⑷ Market sentiment shows a coexistence of weakening crude oil and strengthening refined oil prices, reflecting a much tighter refining sector than upstream. ⑸ The high diesel crack spread indicates that the supply bottleneck of middle distillate remains the core issue. ⑹ If European refineries lose Saudi crude oil supplies, the long-distance transportation and quality matching of alternative sources will push up processing costs. ⑺ Going forward, attention should be paid to whether diesel inventories will seasonally rebound and the extent to which refinery operating rates compensate for the supply gap. ⑻ Overall, the strength of refined oil prices may continue to put pressure on inflation expectations and transportation costs.
