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2026-09-18 20:46:11
[Limited Impact of Saudi Supply Disruption, European Crude Oil Import Structure Provides Buffer] ⑴ Saudi Arabia has notified European refineries that it will not receive crude oil deliveries next month, constituting a short-term supply downside. ⑵ However, Saudi Arabia accounts for only about 6.8% of European oil imports, so the actual impact is relatively manageable. ⑶ The top three import sources are the United States, Kazakhstan, and Norway, each accounting for approximately 12% to 15% of the EU's total oil imports. ⑷ From a market sentiment perspective, the diversification of sources has alleviated the panic of a single supply disruption to some extent. ⑸ However, the transportation distance and quality differences of alternative oil sources may push up refining costs, while the crack spread for refined oil products still provides support. ⑹ Going forward, attention should be paid to whether the United States, Norway, and other countries can increase supply to fill the gap, as well as the tightness of diesel and natural gas inventories during the winter. ⑺ Overall, the supply gap is more of a structural tension than a comprehensive shortage.
