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2026-09-18 21:52:10
[US Treasury Real Yields Soar, Gold Significantly Decouples from Its Traditional Correlation] ⑴ The 10-year US real yield has risen to approximately 2.7%, the highest since the 2008 financial crisis. ⑵ Historically, rising real yields have typically been a major headwind for gold, as inflation-adjusted US Treasury returns are more attractive. ⑶ However, since 2022, gold has shown a significant divergence from real yields, with the current gold price around $4,380 per ounce. ⑷ This relationship shifted after the freezing of Russian reserves in 2022, with central banks increasingly turning to gold as a reserve asset. ⑸ Gold is perceived as less reliant on other countries' balance sheets, increasing its attractiveness as a reserve asset. ⑹ Even with a significant increase in the real borrowing costs of US debt since then, gold prices have continued to rise. ⑺ From a market sentiment perspective, geopolitical factors and the need for reserve diversification are increasingly offsetting the traditional pressure from high real yields. ⑻ For many global central banks, gold has become a more important reserve asset than US Treasury bonds. (9) The subsequent focus should be on the interplay between the central bank's gold purchase pace and the path of real interest rates, as these two factors will determine whether this decoupling can continue. (10) Overall, the pricing logic for gold is shifting from being solely driven by interest rates to a combination of reserve and geopolitical factors.
