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2026-09-20 21:12:15
[CITIC Securities: Suggests Actively Seizing the Last Window of Opportunity This Year; Two Key Areas to Focus on in the Technology Sector] CITIC Securities points out that in the latter half of an industry supercycle, after institutional holdings peak, a wave of new highs in non-institutional holdings typically occurs. The current AI industry trend, the stage of its profit cycle, and the global monetary environment are likely to limit institutional holdings: 1) AI computing power investment has not slowed, but market expectations for the commercial expansion of cutting-edge model manufacturers are in a period of adjustment; 2) The earnings of the A-share non-financial sector are likely to continue to rise sequentially in the third quarter of 2026, but the peak of year-on-year growth may occur in the fourth quarter of this year; 3) The Federal Reserve has released a tough stance on controlling inflation, and will maintain a relatively tight macro liquidity environment at least this year. From the perspective of institutional research and investment strategies, these factors will undoubtedly constrain the upward potential of the market. However, from the perspective of short-term market sentiment and the rotation cycle of shares, coupled with the catalyst of third-quarter earnings reports, the current market has a favorable environment for active funds to deploy in new technologies and explore new themes. Investors are advised to actively seize the last window of opportunity this year. From an asset allocation perspective, considering the current high-interest-rate environment, market differentiation may widen further during this final window of opportunity this year, with the AI sector poised to regain its market advantage. In the technology sector, we recommend focusing on two main areas: first, sectors benefiting from increased manufacturing complexity, such as new optical communication technologies, PCBs, and advanced packaging; second, sectors with clear growth potential, such as wafer manufacturing and gas turbines. Stocks not heavily held by institutional investors may have greater upside potential, and North American supply chain-related stocks may have a relative advantage in the near future. In the non-technology sector, we continue to focus on the energy and chemical industry and leading securities firms with overseas expansion potential.
