A long-held classic Wall Street logic is that rising real interest rates lead to falling gold prices. Bernstein, however, has just lowered its gold price target, but has deviated from this traditional logic, offering an explanation for this downward revision. Bernstein lowered its 2030 gold price forecast from $6,100 per ounce to $5,600. While real interest rates have climbed from around 1.7% in early March to around 2.7%, the bank remains bullish on gold prices. Bernstein argues that the real engine driving gold prices today is central bank gold purchases, not real interest rates. Gold prices are currently hovering around $4,300 per ounce, down about 22% from the all-time high of $5,589.38 reached on January 28th; silver prices are near $66. However, the numbers themselves aren't the key point. What's truly noteworthy is that a Wall Street investment bank has publicly acknowledged that its past analytical framework may no longer explain the current gold pricing. What adjustments has Bernstein made to its gold price forecast? According to a research report released Monday, Bernstein analyst Bob Blackett lowered his 2030 gold price target from $6,100 per ounce to $5,600 per ounce. The downward revision stems from interest rate expectations, not weakening gold demand. At the beginning of the year, the market expected the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates 1-2 times; now, market pricing has shifted, expecting the Fed to raise rates 2-3 times by 2027. The real interest rate, adjusted for inflation, has risen from about 1.7% in March to about 2.7% currently; the Fed's rate hike on September 16th further confirmed this policy shift. Why do rising real interest rates typically put downward pressure on gold? Data from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis shows that the nominal yield on 10-year US bonds is close to 4.9%; the real yield on 10-year bonds, after factoring in inflation expectations, is about 2.6%, which is basically consistent with Bernstein's calculations. Historically, higher real yields have often suppressed gold prices: bonds can generate stable returns, and compared to zero-interest gold, holding bonds is significantly more attractive. This logic has been used for decades. Bernstein does not deny the existence of this effect, but believes that its weight has decreased significantly. Given that real interest rates are rising, why is Bernstein still bullish on gold? Brackett did not adhere to textbook theory, but presented two market facts: gold ETF holdings have remained basically flat this year; after the Fed's rate hike this month, gold prices did not experience a sell-off, showing great resilience. He said, "Gold can continue to rise in an environment of slowly rising real interest rates, and we seem to be in that situation right now." He cited the market performance from 2023-2025, when the macroeconomic background was similar, and gold also showed its resilience. This resilience is not a new phenomenon. Since the Federal Reserve began a 175-basis-point rate cut cycle in September 2024, the 10-year US Treasury yield has actually risen by about 140 basis points during the same period, completely contrary to textbook predictions. Historically, there are almost no precedents for such a perfect match, yet gold did not collapse. Therefore, even if real interest rates rise slightly by another 25 basis points, it is unlikely to devastate gold prices. What exactly is supporting gold prices? Bernstein's answer is: central bank gold demand. This view is not new, but it has now become a core pillar supporting gold prices. From 2022 to 2024, global central banks purchased more than 1,000 tons of gold annually, absorbing nearly a quarter of the global mined gold supply each year. In his research report, Blackett named a number of potential high-potential countries: China, Japan, and Saudi Arabia, where gold accounts for less than 10% of their foreign exchange reserves; while many Western central banks have gold reserves accounting for 60%-70%. The latest survey by the World Gold Council also confirms this trend: the vast majority of surveyed central banks expect their gold reserves to continue to increase in the coming year. Not all institutions agree with this logic. HSBC released a research report in July, also mentioning the Fed's hawkish stance and the pressure of a stronger dollar. Two institutions, facing the same interest rate environment, gave drastically different assessments of the downside potential for gold prices. What would disprove Bernstein's bullish logic? Blackett bluntly points out the core risk: a slowdown in central bank gold purchases would have a far greater impact on the bullish gold argument than the interest rate path itself. Two other scenarios would reactivate the traditional interest rate pricing framework: 1. A sharp rise in diesel and refined oil prices, pushing up inflation and forcing the Fed to raise rates by 2-3 times more than the market currently prices; 2. In the US midterm elections this November, Trump's party loses its majority in Congress, and the safe-haven buying of gold driven by policy uncertainty subsides. What should investors focus on next? According to Bernstein's analysis, official gold purchases are more worthy of monitoring than the Fed's next interest rate change. If central bank gold purchases show a clear slowdown, the impact on this bullish logic would be far greater than another 25 basis point rise in real interest rates. You can check the real-time market data to observe the latest gold price level; at the same time, continue to monitor whether reserve management institutions in Beijing, Tokyo, and Riyadh will continue to narrow the gap in gold reserve ratios mentioned by Brakte. The real basis of this gold price forecast is this reserve allocation gap, not the trend of interest rates.