On Wednesday (October 7), data released by the U.S. Energy Information Administration showed that U.S. crude oil inventories unexpectedly fell last week as refineries increased capacity utilization, resulting in mixed performance of refined product inventories. The U.S. Energy Information Administration reported that commercial crude oil inventories, excluding the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, fell by 3.2 million barrels to 424.1 million barrels in the week ending October 2, about 1% higher than the five-year average for that period. Analysts had expected an increase of 1.7 million barrels. The report was significantly better than anticipated, providing a positive signal for crude oil prices. The actual decrease of 3.2 million barrels in commercial crude oil inventories, compared to market expectations of an increase of approximately 1.9 million barrels, represents an unexpected reduction of about 5.1 million barrels relative to market consensus. However, refined product data was relatively weak, with gasoline inventories rising instead of falling, and distillate fuel inventories decreasing only slightly. Coupled with increased refinery utilization rates, this suggests that refineries may be increasing product supply faster than the market can absorb it. Oil prices reacted limitedly to the data, fluctuating only slightly on the day. Petroleum inventories stored in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve decreased by 800,000 barrels to 283 million barrels. Petroleum inventories at the Nymex delivery center in Cushing, Oklahoma, increased by 444,000 barrels to 24.7 million barrels. Strategic petroleum reserves have fallen to their lowest level since October 1982. Saudi Aramco CEO Amin Nasser stated at the London Energy Intelligence Forum that current global available commercial inventories are less than 6 billion barrels, and the vast majority are practically unusable, putting the market under strain. Chevron CEO Mike Worth also pointed out that depleted inventory buffers have raised the floor for oil prices. Vitol CEO Russell Hadi stated that Western countries have largely exhausted their available inventories, and the fuel market may remain tight until winter. The U.S. Energy Information Administration estimates that U.S. crude oil production is 14 million barrels per day, an increase of 24,000 barrels from the previous week. Crude oil imports increased by 1.1 million barrels per day to 6.8 million barrels per day, while exports increased by 1.2 million barrels per day to 4.8 million barrels per day. The significant increase in exports indicates that U.S. crude oil is becoming more competitive amid global supply shortages. PVM analyst Tamas Varga noted that market concerns remain about the sustainability of increased Middle Eastern supply, and geopolitical risks and the threat of storms in the U.S. continue to support oil prices. Refinery operating rates reached 92.7%, up from 92.5% the previous week; crude oil inputs increased by 223,000 barrels per day to 16.5 million barrels per day. Previous surveys had predicted a 0.2 percentage point decrease in refinery operating rates. The unexpected rebound in refinery utilization was a key factor driving crude oil inventory reduction. Market participants believe that high operating rates help supplement refined product supply, but also exacerbate crude oil demand in the short term. Gasoline inventories increased by 382,000 barrels to 204.7 million barrels, while the market expected a decrease of 1.1 million barrels, and was 6% below the five-year average. Gasoline demand increased by 81,000 barrels per day to 8.8 million barrels per day. The larger-than-expected increase in gasoline inventories eased some concerns about supply tightness, but remained below the seasonal average. Total product supply over the past four weeks averaged 21.1 million barrels per day, up 0.7% year-on-year. Distillate fuel inventories decreased by 42,000 barrels to 105.1 million barrels, 12% below the five-year average for that period. Previously, distillate fuel inventories were expected to decrease by 1.5 million barrels. Distillate fuel inventories saw only a slight decline, far better than expected, but absolute levels remain significantly low. The International Energy Agency (IEA) is preparing to accelerate the release of approximately 100 million barrels of oil reserves (prioritizing diesel) to alleviate high diesel prices. Analysts warn that if winter demand rises or exports continue, the distillate fuel shortage could worsen again. Overall, this EIA data was generally bullish for crude oil, with unexpected inventory reductions coupled with increases in both production and exports strengthening supply-side support expectations. However, refined product data was relatively flat, and combined with expectations of IEA reserve releases and changes in the Middle East situation, oil prices reacted relatively restrainedly. The market remains closely watching refinery utilization rates, geopolitical developments, and the vulnerability arising from the depletion of global inventory buffers.